CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., July 26, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The sluggish economic recovery is continuing to drive down total births in the United States in 2012, according to the July edition of the U.S. Fertility Forecast from Demographic Intelligence. Moreover, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the U.S. is predicted to fall to a 25-year low this year, 1.87 children per woman, from a recent high of 2.12 per children per woman in 2007.
The ongoing decline in total births is particularly striking because the Echo Boom generation, the children of the Baby Boomers, is moving into childbearing age. This means that the number of women in their prime childbearing age is now surging, which should have led to an increase in the overall number of children born each year. But this baby boomlet has so far failed to materialize because today's young adults are concerned about their current employment status and future economic prospects.
Drawing on an extensive analysis of demographic, economic, and cultural trends, including Google search trends, the new report from DI provides detailed projections of U.S. birth trends in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Three findings from The U.S. Fertility ForecastTM are particularly noteworthy:
- The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) will fall more than 10 percent from 2.12 children per woman in 2007 to 1.87 in 2012, according to the forecast. The report estimates the 2011 TFR stood at 1.89 in 2011. Fertility rates have not been this low in the U.S. since the 1980s.
- Fertility fell most among women under 30 in the wake of the Great Recession. The report finds that births fell, from 2007 to 2012, more than 6 percent among women aged 25-29, 14 percent among women aged 20-24, and 20 percent among teenage women. "Clearly, younger women and their partners have been hit hardest—economically speaking—by the recession and it shows in their childbearing patterns," said Dr. Samuel Sturgeon, the president of Demographic Intelligence
- Fertility intentions among American women remain high. Despite the recession's fallout, the average American woman still intends to have more than 2.2 children over her lifetime. "Although there has been a small dip in intended fertility for women in the twenties in the wake of the recession, intended fertility remains high among most women," said Sturgeon. "If a robust economic recovery kicks in, these intentions should translate into a spike in childbearing."
The U.S. Fertility ForecastTM is typically more than 98 percent accurate in predicting U.S. birth trends. The forecast model proved 99.6 percent accurate in providing estimates for U.S. births in 2010 and the newly calibrated model was 99.92 percent accurate predicting total 2011 births.
"This report fills a critical gap for executives and analysts working in the juvenile products and health care industries," noted Sturgeon. "After all, the U.S. Census Bureau birth projections are not calibrated to changes in the economy and culture, and academic research doesn't typically provide fine-grained projections of U.S. births on a short- or medium-term basis. This is particularly important because the economic and cultural drivers of fertility are so much in flux today. Thus, Demographic Intelligence gives companies a clear sense of the demographic road ahead."
About Demographic Intelligence
Demographic Intelligence (DI) is the premier provider of U.S. birth forecasts and fertility analytics for businesses with an interest in birth trends in the United States. DI provides reports and consulting services to companies in the following sectors: juvenile products, healthcare, media, financial services, consumer food, and household products. Demographic Intelligence is advised in its work by three leading demographers: Princeton economist Alicia Adsera, University of Pennsylvania demographer Hans-Peter Kohler, and University of North Carolina demographer Philip Morgan.