SOURCE: Stratfor

Stratfor

December 28, 2016 06:36 ET

Stratfor Forecasts Economic Stress, Geopolitical Tremors and U.S. Retrenchment to Shape 2017

Leading Geopolitical Analysis Platform Identifies Key Global Trends and Developments For The Year Ahead in 2017 Annual Forecast

AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwired - December 28, 2016) - Economic frustration, a China in transition and a U.S. focus on retrenchment in the year ahead will have an enduring impact on the global economy and international system according to Stratfor's 2017 Annual Forecast. The leading geopolitical analysis platform identifies demographic shifts, the return of inflation, trade relationships and a modest recovery for crude oil prices as key factors in its latest forecast on the structural forces that will shape the world in the coming year.

"These long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily make their appearance as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the more intense the political response," said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. "2017 will be a year of heavy consequence. In this prolonged period of economic stress, nationalism builds up, nativism resurges and barriers are resurrected."

In its previous annual forecast, Stratfor stated "the defining events of 2016 will raise apprehension around the world, leading into what will likely be an even more tumultuous 2017 as an array of developing conflicts comes into sharper focus." Key predictions in Stratfor's 2017 Annual Forecast include:

  • Elections in France, Germany and potentially Italy will pose an existential challenge to the Eurozone.
  • European divisions and a more pliant U.S. presidency will crack a united Western front on sanctions against Russia.
  • U.S.-China frictions will escalate and the reverberations of their trade spat will draw the United States deeper into the Pacific theater as Beijing pulls its own trade and security levers in retaliation.
  • The framework of the Iranian nuclear deal will hold, but an overall deterioration in U.S.-Iranian relations will work in Moscow's favor.
  • Turkish-Iranian competition will escalate and Saudi Arabia will play a more interventionist role in the oil markets.
  • The degradation of Islamic State will drive a rise in insurgent and terrorist activity while Al Qaeda quietly rebuilds.
  • North American integration will endure in spite of U.S. efforts to renegotiate parts of NAFTA.
  • With nationalism on the rise in much of the developed world, global trade initiatives will fragment and export-dependent countries will seek out less ambitious trade pacts in smaller groupings.

The complete 2017 Annual Forecast is now available at Stratfor.com. Stratfor's 2016 Annual Forecast predicted the growth of nationalism and fragmentation of the European Union; Turkey's military advance into northern Syria; the continuation of the U.S.-Russia standoff in Syria without major strategic concessions; and the absence of any coordinated move to cut global oil production until just before the end of the year.

About Stratfor

As the world's leading geopolitical analysis platform, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Individual subscriptions and enterprise membership are available at Stratfor.com.

Embedded Video Available: https://youtu.be/UIaLgV2pKr8

Contact Information

  • For more information, contact:
    Joshua Cook
    Stratfor Director of Public Relations
    pr@stratfor.com
    512.744.4309