Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

November 04, 2011 08:15 ET

2011-2012 Housing Market Outlook (Province of Quebec)

MONTRÉAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - Nov. 4, 2011) - According to the latest forecasts conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), recent economic growth, favourable borrowing conditions and sustained positive net migration will again support new home construction in 2012.

"An easing resale market will lessen the demand for new homes. Accordingly, 48,000 housing starts are expected this year, followed by 44,500 in 2012," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC Regional economist for the province of Quebec.

For most of 2010, new construction of single detached homes benefited from the improved economic and financial environment, as well as from the reduced supply of such homes on the resale market. However, the rising popularity of multi-family housing and densification trends will cool this market segment. As a result, close to 17,000 single detached homes will be started in 2011, with a three per cent increase expected in 2012 to 17,400 units.

Following a strong rebound in 2010, starts of multi-family dwellings will settle back to more sustainable levels over the course of the next two years. Nonetheless, multiple starts will reach 31,100 units in 2011. Given the current supply of condominium apartments on the market, starts of multi-family homes will slow to the 27,100 unit level in 2012.

MLS® sales are expected to record a lower level of activity than in the previous year. However, resale activity will pick up during the last part of 2011 as the housing stock continues to grow. As a result, close to 77,000 MLS® sales are forecast for 2011 and over 79,000 in 2012.

Relatively stable demand for resale homes, combined with rising supply, will take some pressure off prices over the course of the next year. With a return to more balanced conditions, price growth in the resale market will moderate over the course of 2011 and in 2012. The average MLS® price is expected to be $251,200 in 2011 and $257,400 in 2012.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.

CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at http://www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

CMHC Housing Market Forecasts: Province of Québec - Fall 2011
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f) 2012(f)
Residential Construction (1)
(Starts)
Single Detached (1.1) 28,871 23,930 21,917 22,177 19,778 17,535 19,549 16,900 17,400
-17.1 -8.4 1.2 -10.8 -11.3 11.5 -13.6 3.0
Multi-Family (1.2) 29,577 26,980 25,960 26,376 28,123 25,868 31,814 31,100 27,100
-8.8 -3.8 1.6 6.6 -8.0 23.0 -2.2 -12.9
Total 58,448 50,910 47,877 48,553 47,901 43,403 51,363 48,000 44,500
-12.9 -6.0 1.4 -1.3 -9.4 18.3 -6.5 -7.3
Resale Market (2)
MLS® Sales 68,268 70,385 71,619 80,647 76,753 79,109 80,033 76,900 79,300
3.1 1.8 12.6 -4.8 3.1 1.2 -3.9 3.1
MLS® Average Price ($) 171,774 184,555 195,208 207,531 215,320 225,368 241,456 251,200 257,400
7.4 5.8 6.3 3.8 4.7 7.1 4.0 2.5
Other indicators (3)
GDP Growth (%) 2.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.1 -0.3 3.0 2.3 2.0
Employment Growth (%) 1.5 0.8 1.1 2.4 1.2 -0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4
Total Net Migration (3.1) 36,189 29,035 28,135 30,840 37,091 48,329 45,881 44,745 44,900
-19.8 -3.1 9.6 20.3 30.3 -5.1 -2.5 0.3
(1) source and forecast: CMHC. (1.1) Dwelling for wich all walls are detached (1.2) Semi-detached, row or apartment units
(2) source: Canadian real Estate Association, Multiple Listing Service (MLS®), forecasts: CMHC
(3) sources: Statistics Canada, forecasts: CMHC. (3.1) sum of net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net non-permanent residents

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Contact Information

  • Province
    Kevin Hughes
    Senior Economist
    514-283-4488
    khughes@schl.ca

    Montreal
    Bertrand Recher
    Senior Market Analyst
    514-283-2758
    brecher@cmhc.ca

    Quebec
    Elisabeth Koulouris
    Senior Market Analyst
    418-649-8098
    ekoulour@cmhc.ca

    Gatineau (Outaouais, Abitibi)
    Francis Cortellino
    Senior Market Analyst
    514-283-8391
    fcortell@cmhc.ca

    Sherbrooke (Estrie)
    Lydia Yakonowsky
    Senior Market Analyst
    514-283-2203
    lyakonow@cmhc.ca

    Trois-Rivieres (Mauricie)
    Marie-Elaine Denis
    Market Analyst
    418-649-8100
    medenis@cmhc.ca

    Saguenay
    Sebastien Paquet-Poirier
    Market Analyst
    418-649-8102
    spaquetp@cmhc.ca