Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 26, 2005 06:00 ET

61% AGREE WITH PM TO WAIT FOR REPORT & CALL ELECTION 30 DAYS LATER

But PM's Address To Nation Fails To Ignite Liberal Vote With Tories (34%, -1 Point) And Liberals (31%, +1 Point) Virtually Unchanged From Pre-Address Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 26, 2005) - MAJORITY (61%) AGREE WITH PM TO WAIT FOR GOMERY REPORT AND CALL AN ELECTION 30 DAYS LATER, ONLY 34% INDICATE SPRING ELECTION IS BEST FOR COUNTRY

But PM's Address To Nation Fails To Ignite Liberal Vote With Tories (34%, -1 Point) And Liberals (31%, +1 Point) Virtually Unchanged From Pre-Address

Half Of Canadians (49%) Believe PM's Address Was Simply A Cynical Attempt To Hang On To Power, 44% Believe He Sincerely Regrets Scandal And Serious About Cleaning Up Corruption In Ottawa

According to a new Ipsos-Reid poll launched the day after Prime Minister Paul Martin's nationally televised address last Thursday and provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, the majority of Canadians (61%) are in agreement with Paul Martin and believe that it would be best to wait for the Gomery Report and call an election 30 days later - only 34% indicate the Liberals have lost the moral authority to govern and feel Canada should have a spring election.

This despite the fact that half of Canadians (49%) would describe Paul Martin's statement to the Canadian public on Thursday night as a "cynical attempt to hang on to power that has come too late to be sincere". Forty-four percent believe he "sincerely regrets what happened with the sponsorship scandal, and is serious about cleaning up corruption in Ottawa".

As for the vote, if an election were held today, 34% of the decided vote would be go to the Conservative Party (-1 point), 31% would go to the Liberals (+1 point), 18% would go to the NDP (unchanged), and 5% would go to the Green Party (unchanged). None of these changes represents a statistically significant movement in voter support.

And finally, when Canadians were asked whether their opinions of the various major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few weeks: Jack Layton and the NDP (+12 points) are the only one that have a positive "momentum score", while Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party have neither positive nor negative momentum. Meanwhile, Paul Martin and the Liberal Party (-40 points) currently has very negative momentum among the Canadian public.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from April 22nd to April 24th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Majority (61%) Agree With PM To Wait For Gomery Report And Call An Election 30 Days Later…

A majority of Canadians (61%) say that they agree with Prime Minister Paul Martin and that "it is best for Canada if we wait until Judge Gomery issues his report on the sponsorship program this fall, and then call an election 30 days after". Only one-third (34%) agree with Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe and feel that the "Liberal government has lost its moral authority to govern and that an election this spring would be best for Canada". Four percent of Canadians "don't know".

·Agreement with Paul Martin's position that an election should be held off until after the Gomery Report is highest in Atlantic Canada (71%), British Columbia (66%), and Ontario (66%).
·Feelings that we should have a spring election run highest in Alberta (49%), Quebec (40%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (40%).
·Strong majorities of Liberal supporters (87%) and NDP supporters (70%) agree with Paul Martin's position to hold-off the election, while good majorities of Bloc Quebecois supporters (60%) and Conservative Party supporters (57%) feel we should have an election this spring.

Half (49%) Of Canadians Believe PM's Address Was Simply A Cynical Attempt To Hang On To Power…

When thinking about Paul Martin's statement to the Canadian public on Thursday night, half of Canadians (49%) say they would describe this as a "cynical attempt to hang on to power that has come too late to be sincere", 44% believe he "sincerely regrets what happened with the sponsorship scandal, and is serious about cleaning up corruption in Ottawa", and a further 7% "don't know".

·Residents of Alberta (63%), Quebec (59%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (51%) are the most likely to believe Paul Martin's address was shrouded in cynicism, and so are Conservative Party (67%) and Bloc Quebecois (77%) supporters.
·Residents of Ontario and British Columbia (both at 50%), and Atlantic Canada (48%) are the most likely to believe that Paul Martin is genuinely remorseful and wants to clean-up corruption in Ottawa - 74% of Liberal Party supporters feel this way.

PM's Address To Nation Fails To Ignite Liberal Vote With Tories (34%, -1 Point) And Liberals (31%, +1 Point) Virtually Unchanged…

If an election were held today, 34% of the decided vote would go to the Conservative Party (-1 point), 31% would go to the Liberals (+1 point), 18% would go to the NDP (unchanged), and 5% would go to the Green Party (unchanged). None of these changes represents a statistically significant movement in voter support.

Among all Canadians, 11% are undecided or refused to say whom they would vote for if an election were held today (-4 points).

The National Vote…

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 30% 36% 35% 34% -1% 4%
The Liberals 37% 27% 27% 30% 31% 1% -6%
The New Democratic Party 16% 19% 15% 18% 18% 0% 2%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 12% 10% 12% 11% -1% -1%
The Green Party 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 0% 1%

Among Bloc Quebecois Voters: 58% Say They Would Vote For The Bloc To Separate Quebec From Canada - Meaning That 26% Of Decided Voters In Quebec Are Primarily Casting Their Ballot For Separatist Intentions…

As part of the survey, Ipsos-Reid interviewers asked those who said they would cast their ballot in support of the Bloc Quebecois, why they were supporting this party.

Fifty-eight percent of Bloc Quebecois supporters say they are voting for the Bloc Quebecois mostly because they support their plan to separate Quebec from Canada - meaning that among all decided voters in Quebec, 26% are casting their ballot primarily with separatist intentions. Four in ten offer another reason for voting for the Bloc, including 22% who say they would vote for the Bloc Quebecois because they want to punish Paul Martin and the Liberals -- 18% offer some "other" reason.

One percent don't know why they are voting for the Bloc.

Regional Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Federal political landscape has remained static, with Conservatives (39%, - 1 point), Liberal (35%, -1 point), NDP (20%, unchanged), and Green Party (5%, +1 point) support being stable.
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois continues to dominate the Federal landscape (44%, -7 points) but has slipped slightly, while the Liberals (28%, +8 points) have made some gains. Importantly, the Conservative Party sits at 14% support in this province (unchanged).
·In British Columbia the Conservatives (36%, +3 points) lead, followed by the NDP (32%, +5 points), the Liberals (23%, - 2 points), and the Green Party (9%, - 4 points).
·In Alberta, 60% of decided votes are in support of the Conservatives (+ 3 points), tripling the support for the Liberals (20%, -6 points) -while the NDP (9%, -3 points), and the Green Party (8%, +3 points) trail.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservatives lead (44%, -8 points), followed by the Liberals (30%, +4 points), the NDP (20%, +1 point), and the Green Party (1%, -2 points).
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%, unchanged) lead, followed by the Conservatives (28%, -8 points), the NDP (23%, +5 points), and the Green Party (3%, +1 point).

Please Refer To The Table Below To Review Each Region:
Parties Ontario
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 40% 39% -1
The Liberals 36% 35% -1
The NDP 20% 20% 0
The Green Party 4% 5% +1

Parties Quebec
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 14% 14% 0
The Liberals 20% 28% +8
The NDP 11% 8% -3
The Bloc Quebecois 51% 44% -7
The Green Party 5% 3% -2

Parties British Columbia
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 33% 36% +3
The Liberals 25% 23% -2
The NDP 27% 32% +5
The Green Party 13% 9% -4

Parties Alberta
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 57% 60% +3
The Liberals 26% 20% -6
The NDP 12% 9% -3
The Green Party 5% 8% +3

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 52% 44% -8
The Liberals 26% 30% +4
The NDP 19% 20% +1
The Green Party 3% 1% -2

Atlantic Canada
April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 36% 28% -8
The Liberals 44% 44% 0
The NDP 18% 23% +5
The Green Party 2% 3% +1

When It Comes To Momentum: Martin (-40 Points) Is Crashing, Harper Is Even, While Layton (+12 Points) Is On The Move…

Canadians were asked whether their opinions of the various major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few weeks:

When it comes to Paul Martin and the Liberal Party, there is a strong negative momentum (-40 points), as 15% say their opinion has improved, compared to 55% who say their opinion has worsened.

·Negative momentum for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party is strongest in Alberta (-57 points) and Quebec (-55 points).

Paul Martin and the Liberal Party National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Improved 15% 19% 9% 16% 16% 10% 28% 7% 33% 11% 3% 8%
Worsened 55% 53% 66% 56% 49% 65% 45% 72% 30% 64% 83% 50%
No change 24% 24% 22% 24% 30% 18% 18% 19% 31% 24% 11% 31%
Momentum -40 -34 -57 -40 -33 -55 +9 -65 +3 -53 -80 -42

As for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party, there is neither positive nor negative momentum among the Canadian public: Twenty-seven percent say their opinion has "improved" and 27% say their opinion has "worsened".

·Positive momentum for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party is highest in Alberta (+27 points) and Atlantic Canada (+9 points), but is negative in Ontario (-6 points) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-7 points).

Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Improved 27% 26% 40% 26% 25% 25% 26% 54% 14% 17% 25% 9%
Worsened 27% 24% 13% 33% 31% 25% 36% 5% 47% 40% 23% 35%
No change 36% 41% 43% 32% 36% 36% 31% 37% 32% 39% 43% 40%
Momentum 0 +2 +27 -7 -6 0 +9 +49 -33 -23 +2 -26

Jack Layton and the NDP (+12 points) are enjoying some positive momentum among the Canadian public. Three in ten (28%) say their opinion has "improved", while 16% say their opinion has "worsened".

·Positive momentum for Jack Layton and the NDP is highest in British Columbia (+19 points), Quebec (+14 points), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+10 points).

Jack Layton and the NDP National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Improved 28% 33% 18% 27% 27% 28% 43% 19% 33% 51% 31% 16%
Worsened 16% 14% 21% 17% 18% 14% 10% 24% 17% 4% 17% 14%
No change 43% 44% 50% 42% 46% 40% 31% 47% 39% 44% 42% 54%
Momentum +12 +19 -3 +10 +9 +14 +9 -5 +16 +47 14 +2

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois have positive momentum among the Quebec public (+13 points): Thirty-four percent of Quebec residents say their opinion has "improved" and 21% say their opinion has "worsened".

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois QUE CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Improved 34% 22% 15% 17% 61% 13%
Worsened 21% 16% 38% 31% 7% 32%
No change 34% 59% 37% 42% 29% 31%
Momentum +13 +6 -23 -14 +54 -19

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
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