Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

November 17, 2005 05:59 ET

78% OF CANADIANS SAY HOLIDAY ELECTION WON'T AFFECT THEIR VOTE

Seventy Percent Feel Liberal Tax Cut Just Attempt To Buy Votes And Won't Influence Them Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ON--(CCNMatthews - Nov. 17, 2005) - With the possibility of a federal election campaign during the December holidays becoming more and more of a certainty over the past week, a new CanWest News Service/Global News survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid, indicates that most Canadians (78%), while not necessarily desirous of an election at this time of the year, will not let an election during the holidays affect which party they decide to vote for.

And when Canadians are asked to consider the motives behind the Liberal government's announcement on Monday of a major new plan for cutting taxes, 70% say they believe this was "just an attempt to buy votes" and they will not let this "influence how they will vote in the next federal election" (26% feel the tax plan was a good idea and makes them more likely to vote Liberal because of it).

In terms of the federal voting landscape, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive the most support with 36% of the decided votes (+2 points from November 8-10, 2005 survey), the Conservatives would rank second with 27% of votes (-1 point). The NDP (16%, -3 points) trail the two front runners considerably, while the Green Party continues to register low on the federal radar screen (6%, +2 points). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois take 50% of federal votes (-6 points) versus the Liberals who would take 28% (+7 points).

These vote numbers fall against a back-drop of only 35% of Canadians saying they feel "comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election because they will govern very differently due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery Inquiry", and four in ten (39%) saying they feel "comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check".

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from November 14th to November 15th 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Eight In Ten (78%) Agree That Election Over Holidays Won't Affect Their Party Vote…

Eight in ten (78%) agree with the statement "while nobody wants to have an election over the Christmas Holidays, it won't affect which party I decide to vote for" - with more than half (56%) strongly agreeing with this statement. Twenty percent disagree with this statement (13% strongly disagree).

*Agreement/disagreement with this statement is relatively consistent across all regions of the country.
*Liberal supporters are the most likely to disagree (27%) with this statement - indicating they are the most likely to feel an election over the holidays will affect their vote. Conversely, Conservative (87%), NDP (84%), and Bloc Quebecois (82%) supporters are most steadfast in their agreement with this statement than are Liberals (72%).

Seventy Percent Feel Liberal Tax Cut Plan Just Attempt To Buy Votes And Won't Influence Them…

Considering the Liberal government's announcement on Monday of a major new plan for cutting taxes, 70% of Canadians say the feel that the tax cut "is just an attempt to buy votes and won't influence how they will vote in the next federal election". One-quarter (26%), however, feel that the "tax cut plan is a good idea and they'll be more likely to vote for the Liberals because of it". Four percent "don't know" which of these two opinions is closest to their own.

*Residents of Alberta (79%), Quebec (78%), and Ontario (70%), are the most likely to feel the "tax cut plan is just an attempt to buy votes".
*Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (43%) and British Columbia (32%) are the most likely to feel the "tax cut is a good idea" and that they'll be more likely to vote for the Liberals because of it.
*Four in ten Liberal supporters (39%) view their party's tax cut with cynicism and feel it was just an attempt to buy votes.

Grits (36%, +2) Have Lead Over Tories (27%, -1)…

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive the most support with 36% of the decided votes (+2 points from November 8-10, 2005 survey), the Conservatives would rank second with 27% of votes (-1 point). The NDP (16%, -3 points) trail the two front runners considerably, while the Green Party continues to register low on the federal radar screen (6%, +2 points).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois take 50% of federal votes (-6 points) versus the Liberals who would take 28% (+7 points).

Among all voters, 11% are undecided/refused to say whom they would vote for.

Who Would Canadians Never Consider Voting For In Next Election? Thirty-five Percent Say Harper And Conservatives, 29% Say Martin And Liberals, 24% Say Layton And NDP…

When Canadians are asked which major federal political party and leader they would never consider voting for in the next federal election:

*35% say Stephen Harper and the Conservatives;
*29% say Paul Martin and the Liberal Party; and
*24% say Jack Layton and the NDP.

In Quebec, 36% say they would never consider voting for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party, 27% say Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party, 20% say Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois, and 12% say Jack Layton and the NDP.

*Residents of British Columbia (43%), Ontario and Atlantic Canada (both at 39%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%) are the most likely to say they will never vote for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election.
*Residents of Alberta (47%) are the most likely to say they will never vote for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Quebec (both at 36%).

Only 35% Feel Comfortable Voting For Martin and Liberals In Next Election Because "They Will Govern Very Differently Next Time Due To The Lessons They Learned From Gomery"

Thirty-five percent of Canadians agree with the statement "I'd be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery Inquiry" (12% strongly agree). A strong majority of Canadians (63%) disagree with this statement (45% strongly disagree).

*Agreement is strongest in British Columbia (41%), followed by Ontario (40%) and Atlantic Canada (39%).
*Disagreement is strongest in Alberta (81%) and Quebec (70%).
*One in five (20%) Liberal supporters disagree with this statement.

Four In Ten (39%) Say They Would Be Comfortable Voting For Stephen Harper And The Conservatives Because There Will Be A Minority Government To Keep Them In Check…

Four in ten (39%) agree with the statement that "I'd be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check" (13% strongly agree). Six in ten (58%) disagree with this statement (36% strongly disagree). Four percent "don't know" if they agree with this statement or not.

*Residents of Alberta (62%) are the most likely to agree with this statement, followed by those of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (52%).
*Residents of Atlantic Canada and Quebec (both at 65%) are the most likely to disagree with this statement, followed closely by those of British Columbia (64%).

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/

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