SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

April 30, 2010 13:14 ET

April ForecastIQ®: Light at the End of the Tunnel Is Getting Brighter as Outlook for Retail Same Store Sales Growth Improves

Has the Consumer Rejoined the Party?

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - April 30, 2010) -  For the fourth month in a row, same store sales forecasts have improved with 18 of 27 retailers tracked now predicted to experience growth, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Indicators are that the recovery is broadening, but consumer mindset is still fragile with about 30% confident/very confident in the chances for a strong economy, suggesting that retailers should tread lightly.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked        
  APR-2010 MAR-2010 FEB-2010 JAN-2010
Almost certain increase* 8 5 4 4
Likely increase 10 7 8 4
Flat 1 4 0 4
Likely decline 4 4 9 4
Almost certain decline 4 7 6 11

*An "almost certain increase" indicator for April means that in May and June, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago. March indicators were for April and May, etc.

In the April forecast, there's a good mix of retailers almost certain to see growth over last year's sales including specialty (Aeropostale, Buckle and Wet Seal), warehouse clubs (BJ's and Costco), those with a discount offering (Ross and TJX) and Nordstrom.

A variety of retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Children's Place, Fred's and Neiman Marcus are predicted to likely see an increase. On the other hand, Cato's, Dillard's and Hot Topic are likely/almost certain to post a decline through June.

It's still touch and go for Bonton, Gap and JCPenney; all three are likely to see a decline but are in a better position than they were a year ago.

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A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through June follows:

Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale Dillard's
BJ's Hot Topic
Buckle Stage
Costco Steinmart
Wet Seal  
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
American Eagle Bonton
Abercrombie & Fitch Cato's
Banana Republic Gap
Children's Place JCPenney
Neiman Marcus  
Old Navy  

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

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    Phil Rist