LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - November 28, 2007) - If you think holiday sales promotions began
earlier this year, you're right. Nearly 30 percent of Michigan retailers
surveyed by the Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago said they pushed up their timetable from last year.
Asked when they planned to start their promotions -- ranging from
decorations to holiday-focused discounts -- 28 percent said earlier than
last year. Only 4 percent said later and 68 percent said same as before.
"The trend over the last several years has been for an earlier start to
holiday promotions, and this year was no exception. This represents the
importance of the season and the intense competition for those early
shopping dollars," said Larry Meyer, MRA chairman and CEO.
The industry's overall sales performance improved in October after a dip in
September, according to MRA's and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's
Michigan Retail Index.
The Index showed that 44 percent increased sales over the same month last
year, while 39 percent recorded declines and 16 percent saw no change. The
results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 52.0, up from
46.5 in September.
Forty-eight percent believe their sales will increase for November-January
over the same period last year, while 27 percent say sales will decline and
24 percent expect no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted
outlook index of 65.0, up from 62.2 in September.
Michigan retailers went into the holiday season predicting, on average, a
2.2 percent increase in sales over last year's holiday shopping season. The
National Retail Federation forecasts a 4 percent increase across the U.S.
The Michigan Retailers Association is the unified voice of retailing in
Michigan and the nation's largest state trade association of general
merchandise retailers.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
October Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 44 (35) 39 (47) 16 (16) 52.0 (46.5) 133 (99)
Inventory 37 (32) 23 (33) 34 (30) 51.2 (44.6) 127 (96)
Prices 43 (28) 8 (10) 43 (53) 66.6 (55.0) 127 (92)
Promotions 38 (29) 7 (9) 49 (54) 60.1 (55.8) 127 (93)
Hiring 12 (11) 8 (16) 70 (66) 46.9 (45.0) 121 (94)
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 48 (52) 27 (27) 24 (17) 65.0 (62.2) 133 (97)
Inventory 25 (31) 33 (31) 36 (31) 51.0 (51.8) 127 (94)
Prices 42 (29) 6 (8) 46 (53) 64.4 (56.9) 126 (91)
Promotions 45 (41) 10 (9) 41 (41) 67.1 (59.7) 129 (92)
Hiring 10 (10) 10 (16) 72 (63) 46.6 (41.6) 124 (90)
October Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change
North 31 (34) 41 (38) 24 (24)
West 50 (46) 27 (27) 23 (27)
Central 63 (54) 33 (29) 4 (17)
East 50 (30) 40 (10) 10 (60)
Southeast 38 (55) 48 (24) 14 (21)
Question of the Month
Relative to last year, when are you planning to start your holiday
promotions?
Earlier 28.4% Later 3.7% Same 67.9%
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum
of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent
indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the
U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above
50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50
indicate a decrease.
Contact Information: Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656