SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

November 20, 2008 12:40 ET

ForecastIQ Gauges Holiday Spending of Consumers by Retailer

New Service Provides Same Store Sales Growth or Decline Based on Customer Purchase Intentions

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - November 20, 2008) - Trying to gauge how willing consumers will be to spend this holiday season is as difficult as predicting the next bailout victim. However, thanks to a new monthly service called ForecastIQ from Prosper Technologies, LLC, understanding what consumers will spend at specific retailers over the next 75 days is now possible and the initial forecast bodes well for retailers like Costco, Buckle and Walmart, among others.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase          Almost certain to see decline
BJ's                                    Abercrombie & Fitch
Buckle                                  American Eagle
Costco                                  Bonton
Family Dollar                           Chico's
Hot Topic                               Dillard's
Sam's Club                              Gottschalks
Walmart                                 Old Navy
                                        Steinmart
                                        Victoria's Secret

Likely to see increase                  Likely to see decline
Aeropostale                             Pacific Sun
Children's Place                        Stage
Fred's

No change (flat)
Catos
TJX

Actual forecasts for each retailer can be accessed through a 30-day free trial of ForecastIQ by visiting http://www.forecastiq.com/.

"Consumers' drive to spend less is resulting in same store sales growth for retailers such as Costco, Sam's Club and Walmart who offer consumers a value/discount experience and conversely decrease spending at more upscale stores," said Greg Allenby, Ph.D. "Shoppers are more likely to act out their intentions in a difficult economy and are decreasing their spending at upscale stores."

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45- and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. For more information: http://www.goprosper.com/forecastiq-info.pdf

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist
    614-846-0146