SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

January 26, 2010 10:10 ET

ForecastIQ®: Mood Brightens; Outlook "Less Bad" for Retail Same Store Sales

Fewer Definite Declines, More Flat and One Moves to the Almost Certain Growth Column

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - January 26, 2010) - Forecasts for same store sale growth are inching upward for retailers from a year ago, according to the January ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Of the 27 retailers ForecastIQ® tracks every month, eight are likely/almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over in February and March (compared to seven in January '09). More retailers are predicted to be flat and less are forecasted declines through March, indicating retailers aren't necessarily as "sick," but not yet on the road to a full recovery.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked
                                    JAN-2010        JAN-2009
Almost certain increase*            4               3
Likely increase                     4               4
Flat                                4               2
Likely decline                      4               2
Almost certain decline              11              16

*An "almost certain increase" indicator means that in February and March, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

Ross, TJX, Aeropostale and Buckle are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales through March. However, both Aeropostale's and Buckle's projected growth have leveled off since last year, while Ross and TJX make larger strides. Warehouse clubs BJ's and Costco are likely to see an increase.

On the other hand, forecasts remain soggy for higher-priced retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap and Neiman Marcus; they are almost certain to post declines. Hot Topic is almost certain to see a decline as well, whereas a year ago they were likely to experience an increase.

For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ®:

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales growth/decline through March follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale                         Abercrombie & Fitch       JC Penney
Buckle                              Banana Republic           Neiman Marcus
Ross                                Bonton                    Stage
TJX                                 Dillard's                 Steinmart
                                    Hot Topic

Likely to see increase:             Likely to see decline:
BJ's                                Children's Place
Cato's                              Saks
Costco                              Wet Seal

American Eagle
Old Navy

About ForecastIQ®

ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist