Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

September 03, 2009 23:59 ET

Housing Starts Will Recover in 2010

HALIFAX- Sept. 3 - According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC's) latest outlook, housing starts are forecast to decline in 2009 in Atlantic Canada, but rise marginally in 2010. Both singles and multiples will see a decline in activity in 2009, as economic growth continues to be impacted by the global slowdown.

"A gradual recovery in Atlantic Canada is expected in 2010. The housing sector is expected to show positive growth of over five per cent in 2010, as consumers continue to take advantage of the favorable interest rate environment and additional fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to support economic growth," said Alex MacDonald, regional economist, with CMHC's Atlantic Business Centre.

With inventory levels down in the first half of 2009, the growth in prices in the existing market continued, with prices up over five per cent so far in 2009. It is expected that the growth in prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2009, rising a further three per cent in 2010.

Favourable market conditions in the second quarter, along with low mortgage rates, have allowed potential homeowners, particularly first time home buyers, to enter the market. As a result, the 2009 forecast is a little less negative than previously forecast, with sales expected to decline over 12 per cent. Momentum in the market begins to rebuild in 2010, as sales are expected to rise close to three per cent.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 60 years. CMHC is committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, affordable homes, while making vibrant, healthy communities and cities a reality across the country. For more information, visit www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca or call 1 800 668-2642.


                   Atlantic Housing Market Outlook(1)

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                                2008             2009               2010

Total Housing Starts          Actual         Forecast           Forecast

                            ---------------------------------------------

New Brunswick                  4,274            3,285              3,500

  Forecast Ranges                         3,000-3,650        2,950-4,000

Nova Scotia                    3,982            3,050              3,325

  Forecast Ranges                         2,875-3,600        3,050-4,000

Prince Edward Island             712              625                640

  Forecast Ranges                             550-675            550-700

Newfoundland and Labrador      3,261            2,950              3,000

  Forecast Ranges                         2,575-3,275        2,600-3,450

Atlantic Region Total         12,229            9,910             10,465

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  Forecast Ranges                        9,000-11,200       9,150-12,150

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                 Atlantic Housing Market Outlook(1)

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                                2008             2009               2010

Total MLS(R) Sales(2)         Actual         Forecast           Forecast

                            ---------------------------------------------

New Brunswick                  7,555            6,650              6,900

  Forecast Ranges                         6,000-7,000        6,400-7,350

Nova Scotia                   10,874            9,275              9,500

  Forecast Ranges                         9,000-9,800       9,000-10,500

Prince Edward Island           1,413            1,350              1,400

  Forecast Ranges                         1,250-1,450        1,300-1,500

Newfoundland and Labrador      4,695            4,100              4,200

  Forecast Ranges                         3,750-4,250        3,800-4,400

Atlantic Region Total         24,538           21,375             22,000

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  Forecast Ranges                       20,000-22,500      20,500-23,750

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SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Third Quarter

2009.

(1) The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on

    information available as of July 23. Where applicable, forecast

    ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

(2) The term MLS(R) stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a

    registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 

                 Atlantic Housing Market Outlook(1)

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                                2008             2009               2010

Average MLS(R) Price ($)(2)   Actual         Forecast           Forecast

                            ---------------------------------------------

New Brunswick               $145,762         $150,100           $155,600

  Forecast Ranges                     148,000-152,500    152,000-157,500

Nova Scotia                 $189,902         $194,500           $199,250

  Forecast Ranges                     190,000-197,000    195,000-203,000

Prince Edward Island        $139,944         $146,500           $151,000

  Forecast Ranges                     143,000-148,000    148,000-153,000

Newfoundland and Labrador   $178,477         $205,000           $213,000

  Forecast Ranges                     200,000-208,000    207,500-216,000

Atlantic Region Total       $171,247         $179,670           $185,114

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  Forecast Ranges                     176,342-182,076    180,912-188,169

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SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Third Quarter

2009.

(1) The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on

    information available as of July 23. Where applicable, forecast

    ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

(2) The term MLS(R) stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a

    registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 

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