Leger Marketing

Leger Marketing

May 15, 2006 04:00 ET

McGuinty Wins Patio Poll Again

In 2nd Annual Patio Poll, More Ontarians would Prefer to Have Drinks & Dinner with McGuinty (36%; +4) than Tory (21%; -6) Attention: Assignment Editor, News Editor, Government/Political Affairs Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO, PROVINCIAL PUBLIC OPINION POLL --(CCNMatthews - May 15, 2006) - ** SUMMARY

** McGuinty's Lead Over Tory Increases by 10 Points in 2nd Annual Patio Poll:
In our second sounding on the resonance of the personas of Ontario's three main party leaders, Premier Dalton McGuinty's lead over Opposition Leader John Tory increases by ten points. By a 15-point margin, more Ontarians would prefer to have a conversation over drinks and dinner with McGuinty (36%; +4) than with Tory (21%; -6). NDP Leader Howard Hampton trails with 12% (-3).

** Party Vote Intent among Decided Voters Remains Steady Since Early April:
Meanwhile, party vote intent remains steady since Early April, as the Liberals (38%; -1) maintain their lead over the PCs (33%; -2). The NDP continue to trail (19%; +1). Ten percent (10%; +2) say they would vote for "some other party".

* DETAILED FINDINGS: PATIO POLL - Gauging Personality Appeal among Ontario's Party Leaders

* In the last U.S. Presidential Election, numerous analysts and pundits discussed the importance of the electorate's perception of the candidates' personalities - and their connection and comfort with the candidates as people rather than as leaders - in determining the victor in the close contest. The colloquial question that was often asked in order to gauge this personal connection was: "Who would you rather have a beer with?", with the more sober, less oft-referenced line-of-inquiry invoking coffee rather than brew.
* In June 2005, Leger Marketing conducted a similar, more inclusive version of this fun - but important - question about Ontario's political leaders and the resonance of their personas: "Forgetting for a moment which political party you might support, please tell me which one of the following three main provincial party leaders you - on a personal level - would most prefer to sit down with, and have a conversation over drinks and dinner. Is it Dalton McGuinty, John Tory or Howard Hampton? [Leader Options Randomized]"
* With Patio Season officially kicking off this weekend, Leger Marketing is happy to release our second instalment of "The Patio Poll". The results are as follows:
* Representing an increase of 4 points, 36% of Ontarians would prefer to sit down with Premier Dalton McGuinty for conversation over drinks and dinner. In contrast, the proportion preferring personal time with Opposition Leader John Tory (21%) declined 6 points. NDP Leader Howard Hampton trails with 12% (-3).
* Notably, 20% (+4) of Ontarians do not want to spend personal time with any of the three leaders. Additionally, 5% (+1) indicated that they were unaware of all three leaders, and 7% (+1) were unsure of their preference.

* METHODOLOGY
From April 25 to April 30, 2006, Leger Marketing - the Canadian representative of the Gallup International Association - conducted telephone interviews among a randomly selected, representative sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. The margin of error for the total sample is +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current regional, gender, and age Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the province.

Across the regions, Decided Voters sub-samples are as follows: Toronto (n=204; +/-6.9%), 905 Belt (n=221; +/-6.6%), Hamilton-Niagara (n=109; +/-9.4%), Southwest (n=108; +/-9.4%), East (n=125; +/-8.8%) and North (n=76; +/-11.2%). Any discrepancies between totals are due to rounding.

* ABOUT LEGER MARKETING
Founded in 1986, Leger Marketing is the largest independent full-service research firm in Canada, with more than 500 employees spread over its offices in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Quebec City, New York City, Philadelphia, and Shanghai. Leger conducts quantitative and qualitative research on behalf of an extensive array of public and private sector clients on a local, national, and global scale. /For further information: Full, detailed release - with regional results - available on our website: www.legermarketing.com/ IN: POLITICS, SOCIAL

Contact Information

  • Craig Worden, Associate Vice President, Public Affairs, Leger Marketing
    Primary Phone: 416-815-0330 ext. 105
    E-mail: cworden@legermarketing.com