Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

May 19, 2009 23:59 ET

New Brunswick Housing Activity to Decline Before Rebounding in 2010

MONCTON, May 19 - Total housing starts in New Brunswick are
expected to decline to 3,475 units in 2009, according to Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Housing Market Outlook released today.
Residential construction is expected to see a moderate rebound to 3,650 units
in 2010.
"Although slower economic growth will impact residential construction in
2009, the new home and resale markets in New Brunswick are expected to remain
strong in historical terms," said Claude Gautreau, CMHC's senior market
analyst for New Brunswick. Nevertheless, the challenges facing the housing
market in 2009 are not unexpected. "The pace of growth in both the new home
and resale markets established during the past decade began to slow in 2008 as
demand weakened resulting in a reduction in residential housing activity,"
continued Gautreau.
In 2009, the provincial economy will continue to face challenges stemming
from weakness in the primary resource sector, although the long-term outlook
for the province is still positive. "Capital investment has, and will continue
to help bolster the economy by offsetting the restraining effect of reduced
exports", said Gautreau. Multi-billion dollar projects, particularly energy
sector projects in the Saint John area, will continue to spark economic
activity in the province.
In New Brunswick's three large urban areas - Saint John, Moncton and
Fredericton - a reduction in residential construction is expected in 2009.
Existing home sales in 2009 are also expected to decline between 12 and 17 per
cent, followed by a moderate increase in 2010. Although the average MLS®
sale price for existing homes is expected to rise in 2009, price growth will
be minimal. With an anticipated increase in sales in 2010, stronger price
growth should return.



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Forecast Summary
Spring 2009
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2006 2007 2008 2009f % chg 2010f % chg
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Moncton CMA
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Resale Market
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MLS® Sales 2,561 2,849 2,663 2,300 -13.6 2,350 2.2
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MLS® Average
Price ($) 128,547 140,032 143,173 145,500 1.6 149,000 2.4
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New Home
Market
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Starts:
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Single-
Detached 593 655 566 540 -4.6 560 3.7
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Multiples 823 770 793 625 -21.2 670 7.2
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Starts -
Total 1,416 1,425 1,359 1,165 -14.3 1,230 5.6
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Saint John CMA
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Resale Market
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MLS® Sales 1,852 2,253 2,166 1,800 -16.9 1,850 2.8
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MLS® Average
Price ($) 128,202 140,544 158,117 163,500 3.4 170,000 4.0
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New Home Market
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Starts:
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Single-
Detached 363 412 488 425 -12.9 440 3.5
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Multiples 202 275 344 300 -12.8 320 6.7
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Starts -
Total 565 687 832 725 -12.9 760 4.8
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Fredericton CA
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Resale Market
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MLS® Sales 2,120 2,448 2,160 1,900 -12.0 1,950 2.6
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MLS® Average
Price ($) 138,094 141,117 152,268 154,000 1.1 158,500 2.9
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New Home Market
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Starts:
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Single-
Detached 387 432 475 430 -9.5 450 4.7
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Multiples 323 204 223 160 -28.3 170 6.3
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Starts -
Total 710 636 698 590 -15.5 620 5.1
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MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA).
Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey),
adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), CREA, Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

Contact Information

  • For further information: Claude Gautreau, CMHC Market Analysis Centre,
    (506) 851-2742, Cell: (506) 866-9002, cgautrea@cmhc.ca; visit www.cmhc.ca or
    call 1 800 668-2642