SOURCE: Lux Research
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October 28, 2009 08:00 ET
Picking Solar's Rising Stars on the Lux Innovation Grid
A Select Few of 127 Photovoltaic Module Makers Will Emerge From the Solar Shakeout, Says Lux Research
BOSTON, MA--(Marketwire - October 28, 2009) - It's been a sobering year in the solar market.
Oversupply has forced module makers to reduce prices as much as 30% in the
past twelve months. Despite the looming shakeout, expectations of future
growth still attract new challengers to an industry already overcrowded
with competitors and a tangled mix of technology platforms. Only a select
few will emerge as dominant players, according to a new report from Lux
Research.
Entitled "Sorting Solar Module Makers on the Lux Innovation Grid," the
report provides suppliers, customers, and investors with Lux Research's
proprietary visual model that quantitatively compares 127 module makers
according to their technical value, business execution, and maturity.
"The core value of this report is being able to see top module makers all
ranked in one place," said Johanna Schmidtke, an analyst at Lux Research
and the report's lead author. "It allows readers to compare different
technology classes, as well as to benchmark the companies operating within
each class against each other."
Based on information gathered in over 200 interviews with industry
executives, the report encompasses solar technologies including crystalline
silicon (x-Si), thin film silicon (TF-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper
indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), concentrated photovoltaics CPV), and
organic and Grätzel PV. It rates companies within these fields on the Lux
Innovation Grid to identify dominant, undistinguished, long-shot, and high
potential players. Among its conclusions:
-- Select x-Si module vendors continue to dominate installation markets.
Improved polysilicon pricing should help cement crystalline silicon's
advantage in most installation markets through next year. Players such as
Sanyo Electric, SunPower and Sharp Electronics are best positioned to
pursue tailored, high-efficiency products for the residential market.
-- Thin-film PV will gain market share in commercial and utility. Aside
from First Solar, the thin film PV market is wide open, with no companies
clearly dominating and many at risk. Their future survival depends on how
well they grow capacity, deliver performance and reliability, and prove
cost competitive over x-Si. First Solar, meanwhile, will compete against x-
Si module makers for utility-scale installations in the U.S. and China.
-- A mixed bag of CIGS start-ups shows no clear leaders. As a group, CIGS
start-ups show a range of technical value and business execution scores,
but none have mastered both dimensions yet. Solibro and Solyndra offer
strong technical value, but still lack the business execution to dominate
the field. Similarly, Johanna Solar Technology and Showa Shell Sekiyu
present convincing business execution scores, but haven't yet shown the
differentiated technical value needed to make a true impact.
"Unlike the battery industry, where end applications are very diverse,
solar is populated by a lot of module makers all targeting the same few
applications: utility, commercial, and residential installations," said
Schmidtke. "The Lux Innovation Grid will give readers a sense of who's
ahead, who's behind, and who's just treading water."
"Sorting Solar Module Makers on the Lux Innovation Grid" is part of the Lux
Solar Intelligence service. Clients subscribing to this service receive
ongoing research on market and technology trends, continuous technology
scouting reports and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research
Solar Journal, and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts.
About Lux Research
Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for
emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on
us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique
research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global
network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our
clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.