LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - November 25, 2009) - Michigan retailers enter the big Michigan
Shopping Day weekend with greater optimism and an earlier schedule of
promotions to attract holiday shoppers.
According to the latest Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of
Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, nearly one fourth of retailers, 23 percent, said they started
their holiday promotions earlier this year than last, continuing a trend of
recent years. Only 2 percent said they started later.
"Michigan Shopping Day marks the official start of the holiday shopping
season, but retailers have been holding special holiday promotions for
several weeks already," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan. "It's
all about getting the season off to the best start possible by attracting
early shoppers."
Nearly two-thirds, 64 percent, of retailers said in a previous survey that
they expect their sales for the season to be as good or better than last
year, with most of those respondents forecasting increases.
Hallan said optimism springs from a more stable national economy and
improvements in the auto industry and the financial, housing and stock
markets. "While higher unemployment is a challenge this year, the overall
economy is on a firmer foundation than last year, when we entered the
holiday season after nearly falling off a cliff."
The Michigan Retail Index survey for October found that 35 percent of
retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 51 percent
recorded declines and 14 percent saw no change. The results create a
seasonally adjusted performance index of 41.4, down from 42.5 in September.
A year ago the index had dropped to 34.9 in October and 28.8 in November.
Looking ahead, 37 percent of retailers expect sales during the November -
January to improve over the same period last year, while 35 percent project
a decrease and 28 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted
outlook index at 48.9, down from 49.2 in September.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
October 2009 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
October Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 35 (35) 51 (49) 14 (16) 41.4 (42.5) 129 (135)
Inventory 23 (19) 40 (47) 37 (34) 37.5 (33.2) 128 (135)
Prices 23 (19) 9 (13) 68 (68) 56.4 (52.8) 128 (134)
Promotions 44 (36) 5 (7) 51 (57) 67.8 (62.5) 128 (135)
Hiring 9 (7) 16 (17) 75 (76) 45.9 (44.6) 127 (135)
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate September results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 37 (38) 35 (36) 28 (26) 48.9 (49.2) 128 (137)
Inventory 17 (20) 41 (36) 42 (44) 41.0 (44.5) 126 (135)
Prices 27 (21) 11 (9) 62 (70) 57.5 (55.5) 127 (135)
Promotions 48 (48) 6 (5) 46 (47) 66.8 (67.6) 126 (135)
Hiring 10 (11) 11 (14) 79 (75) 48.9 (48.1) 127 (132)
October Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number
in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change
North 39 (30) 58 (47) 3 (23)
West 42 (45) 42 (19) 16 (36)
Central 35 (40) 40 (40) 25 (20)
East 20 (10) 70 (50) 10 (40)
Southeast 29 (42) 61 (35) 10 (23)
Question of the Month
Relative to last year, when did you plan to start your holiday promotions?
Earlier Later Same
23% 2% 75%
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum
of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent
indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using
the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index
values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values
below 50 indicate a decrease.
Contact Information: Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656