SOURCE: TrueCar

TrueCar

December 21, 2009 09:00 ET

TrueCar Forecasts December 2009 Auto Sales

A Year to Forget Concludes While Cautious Optimism Builds in the Industry

SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - December 21, 2009) - TrueCar, Inc. (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that December 2009 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. will be 940,076 units, up 26% from November and up nearly 5% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). December's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 10.3 million units. TrueCar's November new car sales forecast was the most accurate of all published reports, with a forecast error of under 1%.

"Though a brutal year for auto sales, manufacturers continue to see the glimmer of the light at the end of the tunnel," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Trends and Insights for TrueCar. "It was about a year ago when sales started to drop off due to the souring economic climate. We have come a long way in the last 12 months but it appears that the recovery in 2010 will be slower than we anticipated earlier in the year." TrueCar forecasts 11.4 million units for 2010.

TrueCar offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.

Forecasts for the top six manufacturers for December:

Unit Sales Forecast

Manufacturer      Dec. 2009 Forecast        Change vs.          Change vs.
                                            Nov. 2009           Dec. 2008

  Chrysler           79,866                     26%               -11%
  Ford              156,491                     32%                17%
  GM                198,578                     32%               -10%
  Honda              90,291                     22%                 5%
  Nissan             69,060                     23%                11%
  Toyota            166,413                     25%                17%
 

Market Share Forecast

Manufacturer      Dec. 2009 Forecast      November 2009      December 2008

  Chrysler              8.5%                   8.5%                10%
  Ford                 16.7%                  15.8%                15%
  GM                   21.1%                  20.1%              24.7%
  Honda                 9.6%                   9.9%               9.6%
  Nissan                7.4%                   7.5%               6.9%
  Toyota               17.7%                  17.9%              15.8%

Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for November:

Manufacturer      Dec. 2009 Forecast      November 2009      December 2008

  Europe               8.8%                    9.2%               8.9%
  Japan               39.1%                   40.2%              37.2%
  South Korea          5.9%                    6.2%               4.3%
  USA                 46.3%                   44.5%              49.6%

TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:

Manufacturer       Dec. 2009 Forecast        Change vs.        Change vs.
                                             Nov. 2009         Dec. 2008

BMW                            21,932           18,272            21,626
  BMW                          18,424           15,708            18,060
  MINI                          3,508            2,564             3,566
Chrysler                       79,866           63,560            89,813
  Chrysler                     14,547           12,544            19,453
  Dodge                        42,044           35,677            47,269
  Jeep                         23,275           15,339            23,091
Daimler                        20,880           17,475            20,854
  Mercedes-Benz                20,121           16,826            18,513
  smart                           759              649             2,341
Ford                          156,491          118,215           134,114
  Ford                        140,388          104,812           116,188
  Lincoln                       6,952            6,409             9,053
  Mercury                       9,151            6,994             8,873
GM                            198,578          150,305           221,104
  Buick                         9,866            8,627             8,909
  Cadillac                     12,485            9,721            13,235
  Chevrolet                   139,862           99,663           137,789
  GMC                          28,864           20,910            29,985
  HUMMER                          289              221             2,170
  Pontiac                       4,783            7,426            16,446
  Saturn                        2,429            3,737            12,570
Honda                          90,291           74,003            86,085
  Acura                        10,429            8,769            10,680
  Honda                        79,862           65,234            75,405
Hyundai                        34,426           28,047            24,037
  Hyundai                      34,426           28,047            24,037
Jaguar                          3,987            3,319             3,632
  Jaguar                        1,333            1,153             1,006
  Land Rover                    2,654            2,166             2,626
Kia                            20,842           17,955            14,644
  Kia                          20,842           17,955            14,644
Mazda                          16,187           14,255            17,965
  Mazda                        16,187           14,255            17,965
Mitsubishi                      3,789            2,925             4,570
  Mitsubishi                    3,789            2,925             4,570
Nissan                         69,060           56,288            62,102
  Infiniti                      7,211            5,644             8,273
  Nissan                       61,849           50,644            53,829
Porsche                         1,955            1,626             2,154
  Porsche                       1,955            1,626             2,154
Saab                              365              371             1,179
  Saab                            365              371             1,179
Subaru                         19,893           16,988            17,287
  Subaru                       19,893           16,988            17,287
Suzuki                          1,742            1,540             3,650
  Suzuki                        1,742            1,540             3,650
Toyota                        166,413          133,700           141,949
  Lexus                        23,985           18,500            23,362
  Scion                         3,486            3,080             4,127
  Toyota                      138,942          112,120           114,460
Volkswagen                     27,696           23,060            25,289
  Audi                          8,348            6,810             7,712
  Volkswagen                   19,348           16,250            17,577
Volvo                           5,683            4,631             4,953
  Volvo                         5,683            4,631             4,953
Grand Total                   940,076          746,535           897,007

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover nearly 45% of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

About TrueCar

TrueCar (http://truecar.com/) is the authority in new car pricing. TrueCar aggregates data from multiple sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. TrueCar is offered online, free of charge -- so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer need to walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: with TrueCar they can walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers also benefit by gaining real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price their cars to increase volume of sales and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.

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