SOURCE: TrueCar

TrueCar

November 24, 2009 06:00 ET

TrueCar Forecasts November 2009 Auto Sales

Recovery in Progress, Slow and Steady

SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - November 24, 2009) - TrueCar (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that November 2009 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in U.S. will be 749,560 units, down 11% from October and up a fraction from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). November's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 10.9 million units.

"The industry is struggling to break out of the 11 million SAAR range. The good news is that we now have two consecutive months of stable sales without Cash for Clunkers or heavy incentives spending by the manufacturers. This indicates that the fundamental consumer demand is solid and the worst is over," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends at TrueCar. "We anticipate the recovery in 2010 to be somewhat slower than earlier forecasts with total sales of around 11.4 million units."

TrueCar offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.

Forecasts for the top six manufacturers for November:

Unit Sales Forecast

                            Nov. 2009       Change vs.    Change vs.
Manufacturer                 Forecast       Oct. 2009     Nov. 2008

  Chrysler                     58,051          -12%         -32%
  Ford                        125,226           -5%           5%
  GM                          152,597          -13%          -1%
  Honda                        72,024          -16%          -6%
  Nissan                       50,964          -15%           9%
  Toyota                      133,250          -12%           2%

Market Share Forecast

                            Nov. 2009
Manufacturer                 Forecast        Oct-09       Nov-08

  Chrysler                       7.70%        7.90%       11.40%
  Ford                          16.70%       15.80%       15.90%
  GM                            20.40%          21%       20.60%
  Honda                          9.60%       10.20%       10.20%
  Nissan                         6.80%        7.20%        6.20%
  Toyota                        17.80%       18.20%       17.40%

Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for November:

                            Nov. 2009
Manufacturer                 Forecast        Oct-09       Nov-08

  Europe                         9.20%        8.80%        8.80%
  Japan                         39.50%       40.20%       38.70%
  South Korea                    6.50%        6.40%        4.60%
  USA                           44.80%       44.70%       47.90%

TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:

                            Nov. 2009       Change vs.    Change vs.
Manufacturer                 Forecast       Oct. 2009     Nov. 2008

BMW                            19,194           -7%          -3%
  BMW                          14,887           -9%          -2%
  MINI                          4,307            3%          -5%
Chrysler                       58,051          -12%         -32%
  Chrysler                     10,765          -16%         -46%
  Dodge                        35,102          -11%         -22%
  Jeep                         12,184          -10%         -40%
Daimler                        17,536           -7%          10%
  Mercedes-Benz                16,515           -9%          17%
  Smart                         1,022            5%          -5%
Ford                          125,226           -5%           5%
  Ford                        112,718           -5%           9%
  Lincoln                       6,224           -8%          -2%
  Mercury                       6,284           -6%          -2%
GM                            152,597          -13%          -1%
  Buick                         8,327           -8%         -11%
  Cadillac                     10,327          -11%          17%
  Chevrolet                   104,362          -10%           9%
  GMC                          20,588          -18%           1%
  HUMMER                          279           -9%         -81%
  Pontiac                       5,839          -45%         -52%
  Saturn                        2,875          -21%         -65%
Honda                          72,024          -16%          -6%
  Acura                         7,501          -23%         -49%
  Honda                        64,523          -15%          -6%
Hyundai                        28,792           -7%          50%
  Hyundai                      28,792           -7%          50%
Jaguar                          2,920           -4%           6%
  Jaguar                          812           -8%          -6%
  Land Rover                    2,108           -2%         -12%
Kia                            20,056          -11%          32%
  Kia                          20,056          -11%          32%
Mazda                          14,129           -6%           0%
  Mazda                        14,129           -6%           0%
Mitsubishi                      3,793           -2%          -3%
  Mitsubishi                    3,793           -2%          -3%
Nissan                         50,964          -15%           9%
  Infiniti                      6,205           -4%         -19%
  Nissan                       44,759          -17%          15%
Porsche                         1,418          -14%           3%
  Porsche                       1,418          -14%           3%
Saab                              479           -7%         -44%
  Saab                            479           -7%         -44%
Subaru                         19,331            6%           4%
  Subaru                       19,331            6%           4%
Suzuki                          2,258           29%         -30%
  Suzuki                        2,258           29%         -30%
Toyota                        133,250          -12%           2%
  Lexus                        17,262          -11%           6%
  Scion                         3,279          -15%         -38%
  Toyota                      112,709       -12.50%           4%
Volkswagen                     22,863           -6%           8%
  Audi                          6,538          -11%          -4%
  Volkswagen                   16,325           -4%          14%
Volvo                           4,678         5.50%           6%
  Volvo                         4,678         5.50%           6%

Grand Total                   749,560          -11%        0.20%

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover over 40% of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

About TrueCar

TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new car pricing. TrueCar aggregates data from multiple sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. TrueCar is offered online, free of charge -- so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer need to walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: with TrueCar they can walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers also benefit by gaining real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price their cars to increase volume of sales and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.

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