SOURCE: TrueCar

TrueCar

October 22, 2009 06:00 ET

TrueCar Forecasts October 2009 Auto Sales

New Vehicle Sales Up Slightly From September, but Still Weak

SANTA MONICA, CA--(Marketwire - October 22, 2009) - TrueCar (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, reported today that October 2009 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in U.S. will be 784,897 units, down 5.9% from October 2008 but up 4.6% from September 2009. October's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 9.8 million units.

"We started seeing the dust settle in the post Cash-for-Clunkers world this month," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends at TrueCar. "Most auto makers will likely take this opportunity to realign their production, pricing and incentives strategies with the new realities of the marketplace. Value Pricing Strategy will experience resurgence in 2010, where the automakers aim to come up with more realistic sticker prices that are closer to actual transaction prices while lowering their incentives spending."

"While the automotive market slowly begins to stabilize, dealers will start to see how consumer decision making has changed," said Scott Painter, CEO of TrueCar. ""Purchasing habits will begin to reflect a new paradigm of educated consumers who will demand transparency in pricing and trade practices, and dealers will actually benefit when they adapt."

TrueCar offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.

Forecasts for the top six major manufacturers for October:

Unit Sales Forecast

Manufacturer       Oct. 2009        Change vs.        Change vs.
                    Forecast        Sept. 2009        Oct. 2008

Chrysler             62,975              1%              -33%
Ford                120,946             10%               -3%
GM                  159,550              2%               -4%
Honda                86,407             12%                1%
Nissan               54,379             -2%               -5%
Toyota              136,865              6%              -10%

Market Share Forecast

Manufacturer      October 2009      September         October
                    Forecast           2009             2008

Chrysler              8.00%            8.30%           11.30%
Ford                 15.40%           14.60%           15.00%
GM                   20.30%           20.80%           20.00%
Honda                11.00%           10.30%           10.30%
Nissan                6.90%            7.40%            6.80%
Toyota               17.40%           17.30%           18.20%

Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for October:

Manufacturer       Oct. 2009        September         October
                    Forecast           2009             2008

Europe                9.10%            9.50%            9.20%
Japan                40.30%           39.70%           40.20%
South Korea           6.90%            7.10%            4.40%
USA                  43.80%           43.70%           46.30%

TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:

Manufacturer       Oct. 2009         Change vs.       Change vs.
                    Forecast         Sept. 2009       Oct. 2008

BMW                  19,918            3.90%           -21.80%
BMW                  15,492            3.00%           -23.30%
MINI                  4,426            7.20%           -16.00%
Chrysler             62,975            1.30%           -33.00%
Chrysler              9,248            2.20%           -53.50%
Dodge                36,231            1.00%           -31.40%
Jeep                 17,496            1.20%           -18.10%
Daimler              16,333           -8.20%            -5.20%
Mercedes-Benz        15,047          -11.40%             0.30%
Smart                 1,286           58.00%           -42.50%
Ford                120,946           10.00%            -3.40%
Ford                107,526            9.10%            -3.20%
Lincoln               6,993           16.90%            -5.50%
Mercury               6,427           18.10%            -4.80%
GM                  159,550            2.20%            -4.30%
Buick                 7,928          -16.20%             3.70%
Cadillac             11,632            2.60%            21.90%
Chevrolet           108,427            5.70%             1.80%
GMC                  19,312            5.20%            -3.80%
HUMMER                  572           34.30%           -58.20%
Pontiac               9,267          -16.40%           -29.00%
Saturn                2,412          -19.40%           -71.90%
Honda                86,407           11.90%             0.60%
Acura                 9,515           31.10%            -5.90%
Honda                76,892            9.90%             1.50%
Hyundai              32,569            3.40%            56.40%
Hyundai              32,569            3.40%            56.40%
Jaguar                3,045           -1.90%            -6.20%
Jaguar                  838           -2.50%           -31.20%
Land Rover            2,207           -1.70%             8.90%
Kia                  21,214           -1.90%            37.00%
Kia                  21,214           -1.90%            37.00%
Mazda                15,788           10.90%            -4.00%
Mazda                15,788           10.90%            -4.00%
Mitsubishi            5,234           11.10%           -30.10%
Mitsubishi            5,234           11.10%           -30.10%
Nissan               54,379           -1.80%            -4.50%
Infiniti              6,392           -3.30%           -10.10%
Nissan               47,987           -1.60%            -3.70%
Porsche               1,554           -1.70%             8.90%
Porsche               1,554           -1.70%             8.90%
Saab                    549           13.50%           -72.20%
Saab                    549           13.50%           -72.20%
Subaru               15,472            6.00%            19.80%
Subaru               15,472            6.00%            19.80%
Suzuki                1,912            2.70%           -45.10%
Suzuki                1,912            2.70%           -45.10%
Toyota              136,865            5.50%           -10.00%
Lexus                17,392           -3.00%             6.80%
Scion                 4,578           24.30%           -32.10%
Toyota              114,895            6.30%           -11.00%
Volkswagen           25,324            2.50%             8.50%
Audi                  7,501            2.20%             0.80%
Volkswagen           17,823            2.70%            12.20%
Volvo                 4,861            3.10%            30.80%
Volvo                 4,861            3.10%            30.80%

Grand Total         784,897            4.60%            -5.90%

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover over 40% of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data-based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar does not adjust statistics for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations. The information contained in this forecast is for noncommercial, personal use on an "as-is, as available" basis and may be used for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained herein and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained herein may include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this forecast.

About TrueCar

TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new car pricing. TrueCar aggregates data from multiple sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. TrueCar is offered online, free of charge -- so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer need to walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: with TrueCar they can walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers also benefit by gaining real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price their cars to increase volume of sales and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.

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