SOURCE: Advanced Forecasting

June 06, 2005 08:00 ET

Advanced Forecasting Refuses to Modify Its 2005 Semiconductor Forecast

SARATOGA, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- June 6, 2005 -- Contrary to the norm in the forecasting industry, Advanced Forecasting refuses to modify its forecast for IC revenues, originally published in November 2004, despite a strong performance in Q1-2005. Worldwide IC revenues decreased 1.5% sequentially in April and are projected to oscillate throughout the rest of 2005, resulting in an annual growth rate near zero. In contrast, sales of IC units increased 0.85% sequentially in April and are expected to continue the increase into the third quarter of 2005 as forecasted by Advanced Forecasting.

"Sales of IC units were robust in March 2005, surpassing its March 2004 level of 8.5 billion units, following a seasonal minimum point in February," stated Dr. Moshe Handelsman, President of Advanced Forecasting, a leading forecasting house. "Therefore, extrapolation of this event that leads to modifications in forecasts is unwarranted. April's increase dampened the celebration since sales ended at 8.7 billion, 1.5% percent below its April 2004 level."

"Our quantitative-based forecasts predicted that sales of IC units would peak in mid-2004, decline in Q1-05, and increase in Q2-05," said Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing and Sales for Advanced Forecasting. "Because we use only quantitative methods and hard numbers as inputs resulting in accurate forecasts, they do not require retroactive modification. Actual shipments in both units and dollars are behaving exactly in line with what our models predicted."

Advanced Forecasting's forecasts have predicted 90% of the turning-points in the Silicon Cycle since 1987, enabling managers to forecast the turning-points of their own product lines. Correlations between the firm's forecasts and company specific data were found in nearly 75% of all cases analyzed. Advanced Forecasting will be conducting a semiconductor forecast seminar in San Francisco during the Semicon West 2005 week in July, in which attendees will learn the methods used by the firm to analyze data and evaluate forecasts. For workshop registration information:

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries. Its unique features are using purely quantitative input and never retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry's most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Rosa Luis
    Director of Marketing and Sales
    Advanced Forecasting
    Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227