AJM Petroleum Consultants

AJM Petroleum Consultants

October 05, 2009 13:45 ET

AJM Petroleum Consultants: Oil and Gas Price Forecaster Adds International Perspective

Canadian natural gas forecast still shows positive signs despite current lows

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 5, 2009) - For the first time in its 10-year history, Calgary-based AJM Petroleum Consultants has issued an international oil and gas price forecast to accompany its much-quoted Canadian quarterly oil and gas price forecast. Moving forward, the international price forecast will allow the oil and gas consulting firm to provide perspective and analysis on the US and international energy industries.

"The economic crisis of this past year has demonstrated, in no uncertain terms, just how much our economy and the energy business have become globalized and interconnected," said AJM CEO Robin C. Mann. "AJM has expanded its client base further into the US and international jurisdictions, and many of our Canadian clients have international interests. Our goal is to provide them with more data and information with which to understand and manage their assets."

With respect to its Canadian price forecast, AJM continues to show crude oil prices in constant dollars based on a WTI forecast of US$65.00/bbl for 2009, rising to US$70.00/bbl in 2010, then reaching US$100.00/bbl by 2016 and holding for the balance of the forecast. On the natural gas side, AJM expects the US NYMEX natural gas price in constant dollars to average US$4.50/Mcf in 2009, and rise to a long-term price in 2020 of US$8.00/Mcf. The Canadian priced AECO forecast continues to show lower prices to reflect Canadian natural gas being supplanted by US shale gas. It is expected to average Cdn$4.50/Mcf in 2009 rising to Cdn$7.50/Mcf in 2020.

Despite the current low prices and lowered long-term forecast prices, AJM economist and Vice President Operations Ralph Glass still sees positive signs that the Canadian natural gas industry may be turning the corner.

"Over the last few months, US industrial demand has increased," said Mr. Glass. "US rig counts over 2009 were about half of what they were in 2008, impacting US production rates. And industry efforts on both sides of the border will promote natural gas as a cleaner burning fuel for power generation and more. This could have a positive impact on demand and on the natural gas industry."

Complete forecast tables, commentary and documentation for AJM's June 30, 2009 Price Forecast are available for download at http://www.ajmpetroleumconsultants.com/.

AJM Petroleum Consultants, a privately owned Calgary-based company, has extensive experience in exploration prospect reviews, basin evaluation studies, and reserve evaluations including evaluations of the unconventional reserves and resources of tight gas, shale gas, coalbed methane, bitumen and heavy oil. With a staff of more than 55 engineers, geologists and technicians, AJM consults for clients including active oil and gas exploration and production companies, natural gas transmission companies, regulatory bodies, financial houses, banks and investment analysts in Western Canada, North America and around the world.

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