AJM Petroleum Consultants

AJM Petroleum Consultants

July 14, 2008 23:59 ET

AJM Releases Third Quarter Forecast Oil and Gas Prices

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - July 14, 2009) - AJM Petroleum Consultants released a third quarter price forecast for oil and gas that shows an increase in both short-term and long-term forecast prices. AJM's Q3 2008 price forecast, established effective June 30, 2008, shows crude oil prices in constant dollars based on a WTI forecast of US $130.00/bbl for the last two quarters of 2008, $118.00/bbl for 2009, declining to $104.00/bbl in 2015. The AECO natural gas price in constant dollars is expected to average $12.00/Mcf for the last two quarters of 2008, $10.00/Mcf in 2009, $9.50/Mcf in 2010 and $9.30/Mcf in 2011.

In his forecast commentary, AJM economist and Vice President of Operations, Ralph Glass, cited a number of independent events, trends and issues that together are affecting price trends.

"In preparing the AJM forecast, I took into account geo-political uncertainties in places like Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and North Korea", stated Mr. Glass. "I also assessed the impact of the supply/demand question as it pertains to the ever-growing Chinese, Indian and Middle Eastern economies and considered the declining production in Mexico and Russia. The general impact of alternative energy sources, the decline of the American dollar and the impact of speculative trading were also factors I considered."

Mr. Glass believes that these factors are a strong indication that the petroleum market is becoming a truly worldwide market, less influenced by strictly North American factors than it has been in the past. The United States' dominant role as the world's largest consumer of energy appears to be waning. The United States is also no longer being used as the world's storage house for excess market crude. Instead, we are seeing supplies being directed to China and India while American crude oil stocks are beginning to drop. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) imports into North America are also down as better prices are negotiated in Europe and Asia.

Complete forecast tables, commentary and documentation are available for download on the AJM Petroleum Consultants website at www.ajmpetroleumconsultants.com.

AJM Petroleum Consultants, a privately owned Calgary-based company, has extensive experience in corporate reserve evaluations, acquisition and divestiture evaluations, and evaluations of unconventional reserves such as coal bed methane, tight gas, shale gas and bitumen/heavy oil. Diverse engineering and geological capabilities combined with a forward thinking approach to technology have allowed AJM to provide innovative solutions to clients in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry in Western Canada, North America and internationally. Over time, the company's price forecasts have proved to be more realistic than others in the industry.

Contact Information

  • AJM Petroleum Consultants
    Andrea Conway
    (403) 648-3269 or Cell: (403) 561-8620