Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

June 28, 2005 06:00 ET

AT THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE FEDERAL ELECTION

Harper Momentum Hits Skids (Down 26 Points) As Grits Maintain Vote Lead – Paul Martin And Liberal Party Momentum Holds Steady (But Still Strongly Negative) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - June 28, 2005) - Coinciding with the first year anniversary of the last Federal election, a new Ipsos-Reid survey of 2000 Canadians, provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from June 21st to June 23rd, 2005, shows that momentum for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party has plummeted since late April 2005 as a much higher ratio of Canadians today say their impression of this leader and party has worsened, rather than improved, over the last few months.

Today, Stephen Harper and Conservative Party momentum sits at -26 points: 43% of Canadians say their impression of this leader and party has "worsened" versus 17% who say it has "improved". This represents a major drop from an April 22-24th, 2005 survey that had Conservative momentum as even nationally (at this time 27% of Canadians had a "worsened" impression and 27% had an "improved" impression).

Momentum for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives is negative in every region of the country, but is most pronounced in Atlantic Canada (-35 points/-44 points from April), Ontario (-31 points/-25 points from April), and British Columbia (-30 points/-32 points from April). Among Conservative Party supporters, momentum has dropped 21 points from +49 points and now sits at +28 points.

As for momentum among the other major parties and leaders:

·Paul Martin and the Liberal Party momentum holds steady but is still strongly negative (-43 points/down 3 points),
·Jack Layton and the NDP hold their ground at +12 points (unchanged), and
·Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois have positive momentum among the Quebec public (+16 points), up 3 points from April 2005.

The survey also asked Canadians to offer their Federal vote intentions. The results show that if a Federal election were held today, 35% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals (+1 point), 27% for the Conservatives (-2 points), 18% for the NDP (+2 points), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 51% support (unchanged) and now hold a 24-point lead over the Liberals (27%, +5 points).

Among all Canadians, 13% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and fielded from June 21st to June 23rd 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Party and Party Leader Momentum…

As part of the survey, Ipsos-Reid asked Canadians whether their opinions of the various major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few months. The results from this question were used to track changes in "momentum" from a similarly worded question asked of Canadians in an April 22-24th, 2005 survey.

Stephen Harper And Conservative Party Momentum Plummets (Down 26 Points)…

Today, 17% of Canadians say that their opinion of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party has "improved" over the last few months, compared to 43% who say their opinion has "worsened" - representing a 26-point negative momentum swing from April 2005. Twenty-eight percent of Canadians say they have had "no change" in their opinion over the last few months, and a further 12% "don't know".

Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party have seen the biggest slides in momentum since April 2005 among:

·Residents of Atlantic Canada (-35 points/ down 44 points from this question's last sounding), British Columbia (-30 points/ down 32 points), Ontario (-31 points/ down 25 points) and Quebec (-25 points/ down 25 points).

Among Conservative Party supporters, momentum has dipped 21 points since April 2005.

REGION VOTE
Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Momentum June 2005 -26% -30% +10% -28% -31% -25% -35% +28% -51% -51% -28% -38%
Momentum April 2005 0% +2% +27% -7% -6% 0% +9% +49% -33% -23% +2% -26%
Change -26% -32% -17% -21% -25% -25% -44% -21% -18% -28% -30% -12%

Paul Martin And Liberal Party Momentum Holds Steady (Down 3 Points) But Still Strongly Negative…
When it comes to Paul Martin and the Liberal Party, strong negative momentum continues as 14% of Canadians say their opinion of Mr. Martin and the Liberal Party has "improved" versus 57% who say their opinion has "worsened" (-43 points). But there has been little change in overall momentum for this party and leader since April 2005 (-3 points).

Meanwhile, one-quarter (23%) say their opinion has not changed over the last few months and 6% "don't know".

·Momentum has remained stable for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party since April 2005 in every region except Atlantic Canada, where it has dropped 39 points to -30 points.

REGION VOTE
Paul Martin and the Liberal Party National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Momentum June 2005 -43% -41% -61% -44% -34% -53% -30% -81% +2% -50% -73% -48%
Momentum April 2005 -40% -34% -57% -40% -33% -55% +9% -65% +3% -53% -70% -42%
Change -3% -7% -4% -4% -1% 2% -39% -16% -1% 3% -3% -6%

Momentum Holds Even For Jack Layton And The NDP (No Change)…

Jack Layton and the NDP (+12 points) continue to enjoy the same level of positive momentum as in April 2005 (no change): Thirty-two percent of Canadians hold an "improved" impression of this leader and party over the last few months, 20% have a "worsened" impression, and 34% have had "no change" in their impression. A further 14% "don't know" if their impression has changed.

·Regionally, Jack Layton and the NDP have made some gains in Ontario (+9 points) and have lost somewhat in British Columbia (-8 points).
·Among NDP supporters, momentum has grown 12 points to +59 points.

REGION VOTE
Jack Layton and the NDP National BC AB SK/MN ON QUE AT CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Momentum June 2005 +12% +11% -2% +13% +18% +10% +9% -13% +23% +59% +4% 0%
Momentum April 2005 +12% +19% -3% +10% +9% +14% +9% -5% +16% +47% +14% +2%
Change 0% -8% 1% 3% +9% -4% 0% -8% +7% +12% -10% -2%

Gilles Duceppe And Bloc Quebecois Up 3 Points To +16 Points…

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois have positive momentum among the Quebec public (+16 points), up 3 points from April 2005. Thirty-eight percent of respondents from Quebec have an "improved" impression of Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois over the last few months, 22% have a "worsened" impression" and 30% have had "no change". Ten percent "don't know" if their impression has changed.

REGION VOTE
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois QUE CP LIB NDP BQ Green
Momentum June 2005 +16% 0% -19% -4% +52% +10%
Momentum April 2005 +13% +6% -23% -14% +54% -19%
Change +3% -6% +4% +10% -2% +29%

The National Vote…

According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 35% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals (+1 point), 27% for the Conservatives (-2 points), 18% for the NDP (+2 points), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 51% support (unchanged) and now hold a 24-point lead over the Liberals (27%, +5 points).

Among all Canadians, 13% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 31% 31% 28% 29% 27% -2% -3%
The Liberals 37% 32% 27% 34% 34% 35% +1% -2%
The New Democratic Party 16% 16% 19% 17% 16% 18% +2% +2%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 12% 13% 14% 12% 13% +1% +1%
The Green Party 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0% +2%

Regional Vote Highlights…

· In Ontario, the Liberals (42%, - 2 points) lead, followed by the Conservatives (30%, -1 point), the NDP (21%, +5 points), and the Green Party (5%, - 2 points).
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds steady (51%, unchanged) and have a 24-point lead over the Liberals (27%, +5 points) - the NDP (10%, - 2 points), the Conservatives (7%, -2 points), and the Green Party (5%, + 1 point) barely register on the Federal radar screen.
·In British Columbia, the Liberals (35%, unchanged) are in first place, while the Conservative Party (27%, - 2 points) and the NDP (26%, + 3 points) are knotted for second - the Green Party trails with 10% support (- 1 point).
·In Alberta, the Conservative Party (63%, +3 points) dominates, while the Liberals (16%, - 3 points), the NDP (12%, + 2 points), and the Green Party (8%, - 2 points) battle for the bottom rungs in this province.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservative Party (35%, + 2 points) and the Liberals (33%, - 2 points) are essentially tied, and are followed closely by the NDP (26%, - 1 point) - the Green Party has 4% of decided votes (+ 1 point).
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (52%, +10 points) are leading, as the Conservatives (25%, -13 points) have fallen back and are now closely followed by the NDP (18%, + 1 point) - the Green Party comes in with 2% of votes (+ 2 points).

Please Refer To The Tables Below To Review Vote Support By Region:

Parties Ontario
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 31% 30% -1
The Liberals 44% 42% -2
The NDP 16% 21% +5
The Green Party 7% 5% -2

Parties Quebec
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 9% 7% -2
The Liberals 22% 27% +5
The NDP 12% 10% -2
The Bloc Quebecois 51% 51% 0
The Green Party 4% 5% +1

Parties British Columbia
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 29% 27% -2
The Liberals 35% 35% 0
The NDP 23% 26% +3
The Green Party 11% 10% -1

Parties Alberta
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 60% 63% +3
The Liberals 19% 16% -3
The NDP 10% 12% +2
The Green Party 10% 8% -2

Parties Saskatchewan/Manitoba
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 33% 35% +2
The Liberals 35% 33% -2
The NDP 27% 26% -1
The Green Party 3% 4% +1

Parties Atlantic Canada
June 14-16, 2005 June 21-23, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 38% 25% -13
The Liberals 42% 52% +10
The NDP 17% 18% +1
The Green Party 0% 2% +2

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
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