Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

November 04, 2011 09:06 ET

Atlantic Canada Housing Market to Remain Soft

HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 4, 2011) - The economic and housing market performance in Atlantic Canada is being impacted by a downturn in employment and slower retail spending activity, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Edition1.

"Low interest rates are expected to only partially offset the weaker economic outlook," said Alex MacDonald, regional economist, with CMHC's Atlantic Business Centre. "The recent news regarding the shipbuilding contract will support a more positive outlook for 2012," added MacDonald.

A slowdown in housing activity, following significant gains in 2010, has continued to occur in single starts in 2011. For 2012, singles are expected to decline five per cent from this year's estimated level. In contrast, multiple starts, which saw strong growth in 2010 as well as positive growth in 2011, are expected to decline 15 per cent in 2012 from the current 2011 estimate.

For 2011, average existing home prices are forecast to increase across Atlantic Canada, from a high of six per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), three per cent in both Nova Scotia (NS), two per cent in New Brunswick (NB) and one per cent in Prince Edward Island (PE). Price increases in 2012 will be moderate in the range of one to four per cent. Existing home sales are expected to decline one per cent in 2011. Sales declines in 2011 will vary from four per cent in NL, three per cent in PEI, and two per cent in NB. NS will see a rise of one per cent in 2011. Sales declines will vary from four to five per cent in 2012 except for NS which is expected to see a rise of two per cent.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.

CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at http://www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1
Total Housing Starts 2010
Actual
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
New Brunswick 4,101 3,200 2,785
Forecast Ranges 3,025-3,375 2,500-3,070
Nova Scotia 4,309 4,500 4,500
Forecast Ranges 4,200-4,800 3,900- 5,100
Prince Edward Island 756 785 600
Forecast Ranges 735-835 550-650
Newfoundland and Labrador 3,606 3,375 2,850
Forecast Ranges 3,200-3,550 2,550-3,150
Atlantic Region Total 12,772 11,860 10,735
Forecast Ranges 11,160 -12,560 9,500-11,970
Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1
Total MLS® Sales2 2010
Estimate
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
New Brunswick 6,702 6,550 6,250
Forecast Ranges 6,300-6,800 5,750-6,750
Nova Scotia 10,036 10,150 10,350
Forecast Ranges 9,850-10,450 9,700-11,000
Prince Edward Island 1,487 1,450 1,375
Forecast Ranges 1,400-1,500 1,250-1,500
Newfoundland and Labrador 4,236 4,075 3,900
Forecast Ranges 3,950-4,200 3,600-4,200
Atlantic Region Total 22,461 22,225 21,875
Forecast Ranges 21,500-22,950 20,300-23,450

SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2011.

1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook reflect information available as of October 5th, 2011 except for the addition of new information regarding the Nova Scotia shipbuilding contract available on October 19th, 2011. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).[1]

Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1
Average MLS®
Price ($)2
2010
Estimate
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
New Brunswick $157,240 $160,000 $161,525
Forecast Ranges 158,000-162,000 159,250-163,750
Nova Scotia $206,186 $212,000 $220,000
Forecast Ranges 211,000-213,000 216,500-223,500
Prince Edward Island $147,196 $148,750 $147,500
Forecast Ranges 147,500-150,000 148,500-151,500
Newfoundland and Labrador $235,341 $249,325 $255,000
Forecast Ranges 246,500-252,000 251,500-258,500
Atlantic Region Total $193,174 $ 199,392 $205,133
Forecast Ranges 197,857-200,908 202,304-207,964

SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2011.

1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook reflect information available as of October 5th, 2011 except for the addition of new information regarding the Nova Scotia shipbuilding contract available on October 19th, 2011. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).[1]

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