HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 4, 2011) - The economic and housing market performance in Atlantic Canada is being impacted by a downturn in employment and slower retail spending activity, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Edition1.
"Low interest rates are expected to only partially offset the weaker economic outlook," said Alex MacDonald, regional economist, with CMHC's Atlantic Business Centre. "The recent news regarding the shipbuilding contract will support a more positive outlook for 2012," added MacDonald.
A slowdown in housing activity, following significant gains in 2010, has continued to occur in single starts in 2011. For 2012, singles are expected to decline five per cent from this year's estimated level. In contrast, multiple starts, which saw strong growth in 2010 as well as positive growth in 2011, are expected to decline 15 per cent in 2012 from the current 2011 estimate.
For 2011, average existing home prices are forecast to increase across Atlantic Canada, from a high of six per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), three per cent in both Nova Scotia (NS), two per cent in New Brunswick (NB) and one per cent in Prince Edward Island (PE). Price increases in 2012 will be moderate in the range of one to four per cent. Existing home sales are expected to decline one per cent in 2011. Sales declines in 2011 will vary from four per cent in NL, three per cent in PEI, and two per cent in NB. NS will see a rise of one per cent in 2011. Sales declines will vary from four to five per cent in 2012 except for NS which is expected to see a rise of two per cent.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.
CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at http://www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.
| Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1 | |||
| Total Housing Starts | 2010 Actual |
2011 Forecast |
2012 Forecast |
| New Brunswick | 4,101 | 3,200 | 2,785 |
| Forecast Ranges | 3,025-3,375 | 2,500-3,070 | |
| Nova Scotia | 4,309 | 4,500 | 4,500 |
| Forecast Ranges | 4,200-4,800 | 3,900- 5,100 | |
| Prince Edward Island | 756 | 785 | 600 |
| Forecast Ranges | 735-835 | 550-650 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 3,606 | 3,375 | 2,850 |
| Forecast Ranges | 3,200-3,550 | 2,550-3,150 | |
| Atlantic Region Total | 12,772 | 11,860 | 10,735 |
| Forecast Ranges | 11,160 -12,560 | 9,500-11,970 | |
| Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1 | |||
| Total MLS® Sales2 | 2010 Estimate |
2011 Forecast |
2012 Forecast |
| New Brunswick | 6,702 | 6,550 | 6,250 |
| Forecast Ranges | 6,300-6,800 | 5,750-6,750 | |
| Nova Scotia | 10,036 | 10,150 | 10,350 |
| Forecast Ranges | 9,850-10,450 | 9,700-11,000 | |
| Prince Edward Island | 1,487 | 1,450 | 1,375 |
| Forecast Ranges | 1,400-1,500 | 1,250-1,500 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 4,236 | 4,075 | 3,900 |
| Forecast Ranges | 3,950-4,200 | 3,600-4,200 | |
| Atlantic Region Total | 22,461 | 22,225 | 21,875 |
| Forecast Ranges | 21,500-22,950 | 20,300-23,450 | |
SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2011.
1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook reflect information available as of October 5th, 2011 except for the addition of new information regarding the Nova Scotia shipbuilding contract available on October 19th, 2011. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.
2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).[1]
| Atlantic Housing Market Outlook1 | |||
| Average MLS® Price ($)2 |
2010 Estimate |
2011 Forecast |
2012 Forecast |
| New Brunswick | $157,240 | $160,000 | $161,525 |
| Forecast Ranges | 158,000-162,000 | 159,250-163,750 | |
| Nova Scotia | $206,186 | $212,000 | $220,000 |
| Forecast Ranges | 211,000-213,000 | 216,500-223,500 | |
| Prince Edward Island | $147,196 | $148,750 | $147,500 |
| Forecast Ranges | 147,500-150,000 | 148,500-151,500 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $235,341 | $249,325 | $255,000 |
| Forecast Ranges | 246,500-252,000 | 251,500-258,500 | |
| Atlantic Region Total | $193,174 | $ 199,392 | $205,133 |
| Forecast Ranges | 197,857-200,908 | 202,304-207,964 | |
SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Atlantic Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2011.
1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook reflect information available as of October 5th, 2011 except for the addition of new information regarding the Nova Scotia shipbuilding contract available on October 19th, 2011. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.
2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).[1]
Contact Information:
Regional Economist
CMHC
(902) 426-8964
amacdona@cmhc-schl.gc.ca