SOURCE: Scotiabank

Scotiabank

October 27, 2016 08:30 ET

Auto industry recovery begins in Brazil, investment and exports lead the way: Scotiabank

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - October 27, 2016) - Global car sales accelerated further in September, climbing 10% y/y and marking the largest gain in three years. Activity has even improved in Brazil, one of the weakest major auto markets in recent years with sales slumping nearly 50% since 2013. Vehicle production in Brazil is ramping up at a much faster pace than domestic sales as exports to neighbouring countries move higher alongside stronger economic conditions.

"Brazil's vehicle exports have surged nearly 20% so far this year, with export growth accelerating in recent months," said Carlos Gomes, Senior Economist and Auto Industry Specialist at Scotiabank. "The improvement in Brazil's economic activity is already benefitting its South American neighbours with imports from Latin America currently advancing at a double-digit pace, a significant reversal from the sharp slump in 2015."

The automotive export acceleration is leading to firmer industrial activity in Brazil and to a significant increase in investment. A recent survey by the Brazilian Central Bank revealed that during the first seven months of 2016, foreign direct investment in the Brazilian auto industry soared 77% above a year earlier, providing much-needed support for industrial activity going forward.

Asia led the way in September with purchases surging 21% above a year earlier alongside a 32% spike in volumes in China. Volumes were also strong in Western Europe and even turned positive year-over-year in Eastern Europe, as double-digit advances in 11 nations more than offset ongoing declines in Russia.

Purchases in the U.S. rebounded to an annualized 17.7 million units in September, up from less than 17 million in August and an average of 17.2 million during the previous eight months. A continued moderate increase is likely in 2017, supported by ongoing strength in key economic fundamentals such as a solid labour market, rising incomes, low interest rates and fuel prices. Last month's better-than-expected performance prompted the industry to increase its full-year North American production plan to record highs.

Sales in Canada bounced back in September with several automakers reporting records for the month. We estimate that overall purchases totaled 1.96 million units, which is well above the 1.89 million average of the past two months, but marginally below the year-ago record for September. While activity was mixed across the provinces last month, Ontario and B.C. continued to outperform.

Read the full Scotiabank Global Auto Report online at:
http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.

About Scotiabank
Scotiabank is Canada's international bank and a leading financial services provider in North America, Latin America, the Caribbean and Central America, and Asia-Pacific. We are dedicated to helping our 23 million customers become better off through a broad range of advice, products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. With a team of more than 88,000 employees and assets of $907 billion (as at July 31, 2016), Scotiabank trades on the Toronto (TSX: BNS) and New York Exchanges (NYSE: BNS). Scotiabank distributes the Bank's media releases using Marketwired. For more information, please visit www.scotiabank.com and follow us on Twitter @ScotiabankViews.

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