SOURCE: Axiometrics Inc.

Axiometrics logo

September 28, 2016 09:00 ET

Axiometrics Finds High-Rent Metros Drive Down Third-Quarter Apartment Market Performance

Secondary Markets Show Largest Gains; Occupancy Still Above 95%

DALLAS, TX--(Marketwired - September 28, 2016) - Year-over-year apartment rent declines in some of the nation's highest-priced markets continued to affect the overall national market, as performance moderated in the third quarter of 2016, according to early figures from Axiometrics, a provider of apartment and student housing market intelligence.

  • The average effective rent nationwide was $1,289 per unit per month, compared to $1,251 in the third quarter of 2015.
  • That marked a year-over-year increase of 3.0% for the third quarter of 2016, more than 2 percentage points below the robust 5.2% rent growth of one year ago. This marked the fourth straight quarter in which the annual rent-growth rate decreased.

"While the national apartment market is still performing above the long-term average, the moderation from the unsustainable levels of 2014 and 2015 has come, as Axiometrics predicted," said Jay Denton, Axiometrics Senior Vice President of Analytics. "In particular, rent growth has declined precipitously in markets with the highest rents in the country, such as New York and the San Francisco Bay Area."

  • Rent levels declined year over year in the three major markets with the highest rents -- San Francisco, New York and San Jose -- and increased by less than 2% in the fourth highest rent-growth metro, Oakland.
Third-Quarter 2016 Rent, Rent Growth in Highest-Priced Markets
Market  Average Effective Rent  Annual Effective Rent Growth
San Francisco  $3,292  -0.5%
New York  $3,036  -0.2%
San Jose  $2,817  -0.8%
Oakland  $2,413  1.8%

Source: Axiometrics

  • Although Houston isn't a high-rent market, its -2.8% rent growth in the third quarter also helped weigh down the national rate.
  • Hartford, Birmingham and Oklahoma City also experienced negative annual rent growth.

"Job growth isn't bad in the Bay Area and New York, though the rate has slowed over the past year, so demand for apartments is still relatively strong," Denton said. "However, the amount of new supply that has been and will be delivered to these markets is extremely large and is forcing owners and developers to keep rents lower than they would like so they can remain competitive."

San Francisco, though, may be showing some signs of recovery. Though year-over-year rent growth was negative, the average third-quarter rent was 2.6% higher than the average second-quarter payment.

"What that tells us is that the metro's decline came last fall and winter," Denton said. "If job growth picks up, the apartment market will gain strength."

Houston is being affected by job losses in the energy sector, as well as a glut of supply in the urban core Montrose/River Oaks submarket.

"Urban cores in general are showing slowing performance," Denton said. "The market is feeling the effects of the concentrated new supply in these submarkets. Nationwide, however, supply is just keeping up with the demand."

The slower performance of high-priced markets is somewhat counteracted by robust fundamentals in secondary markets. For example, annual effective rent growth in Sacramento; Riverside, CA; Salt Lake City; Las Vegas; Fort Worth; Tampa-St. Petersburg; and Nashville are among the 10 highest in major markets.

Other Third-Quarter Highlights

  • Effective rents increased 1.2% in the third quarter over the second quarter. The rent-growth rates for the past four quarters have been lower than the previous corresponding quarters.
Quarterly Effective Rent Growth
Quarter 2013 2014 2015 2016
First 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Second 2.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3%
Third 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2%
Fourth -0.9% -0.3% -0.8%  

Source: Axiometrics

  • Occupancy was 95.1% in the third quarter, compared to 95.2% in the second quarter and 95.4% in the third quarter of 2015.

Top 25 Markets for Rent Growth and Occupancy

The top 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas or Metropolitan Divisions -- among Axiometrics' top 50 markets with the most apartments -- in various third-quarter 2016 categories:

Top 25 Markets by Annual Effective Rent Growth for 3Q16

MSA/Metropolitan Division
Annual Effective Rent Growth
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 11.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 7.9%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 6.7%
Salt Lake City, UT 6.7%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 6.4%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 5.7%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5.6%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 5.5%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN 5.4%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5.4%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 5.3%
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA 4.9%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 4.9%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 4.6%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 4.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 4.3%
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI 4.2%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 4.1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 4.0%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 4.0%
Raleigh, NC 3.7%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.7%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 3.5%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 3.5%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL 3.3%
National 3.0%
  
Top 25 Markets by Quarterly Effective Rent Growth for 3Q16


MSA/Metropolitan Division
Quarterly Effective Rent Growth
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 4.2%
Salt Lake City, UT 3.0%
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA 2.6%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 2.5%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2.4%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 2.3%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 2.1%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2.0%
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI 2.0%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC 2.0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 1.9%
Raleigh, NC 1.9%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 1.9%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 1.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1.8%
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD 1.8%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 1.7%
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA 1.7%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 1.5%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 1.5%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN 1.4%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 1.4%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1.3%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1.2%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1.2%
National 1.2%
  
Top 25 Markets by Occupancy for 3Q16

MSA/Metropolitan Division
3Q16 Occupancy Change from 2Q16
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 97.31% 0.5%
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY 97.08% 0.0%
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI 97.05% 0.1%
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ 96.85% -0.1%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN 96.12% -0.1%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 96.12% -0.5%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 96.08% 0.0%
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA 96.00% 0.0%
Salt Lake City, UT 95.94% -0.1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 95.93% 0.1%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 95.89% 0.1%
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 95.85% -0.6%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 95.81% 0.0%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 95.81% 0.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS 95.81% 0.3%
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA 95.79% -0.5%
Columbus, OH 95.74% -0.2%
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 95.68% -0.1%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 95.63% 0.0%
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA 95.62% -0.1%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 95.62% 0.2%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 95.60% -0.5%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 95.59% -0.1%
Raleigh, NC 95.54% 0.3%
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 95.53% -0.2%
National 95.1% -0.1%

About Axiometrics

Axiometrics' expertise is monitoring and reporting on the apartment and student housing markets, providing an in-depth view of volatile market trends. Axiometrics' granular data-collection methods and thorough analysis help clients make profitable -- and wise -- decisions.

To learn more visit www.axiometrics.com, follow @Axiometrics or on LinkedIn, or call 214-953-2242.

Image Available: http://www.marketwire.com/library/MwGo/2016/9/27/11G115801/Images/3Q_ERG-Occupancy-No_background-adbe23b061929e6ea3e714232fc49436.JPG

Contact Information