SOURCE: Axiometrics Inc.

Axiometrics Inc.

April 17, 2013 10:30 ET

Axiometrics Reports That Annual Effective Rent Growth for Apartments Softens to Slowest Pace in Thirty-One Months

DALLAS, TX--(Marketwired - April 17, 2013) -  Axiometrics Inc., the leading provider of apartment data and research, reports that annual effective rent growth for apartments in March -- at a rate of 3.22% -- was the lowest it has been in the past 31 months. However, while effective rent growth was weaker than it has been in recent months, the occupancy rate continued to strengthen, reaching a national average of 94.37% in March. Thirty-eight of the top 88 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) generated occupancy rates above 95.0%.

"Class A properties have been a drag on the national rent growth numbers over the past several months," said Ron Johnsey, founder and president of Axiometrics. "Annual effective rent growth for Class A units slowed to 3.1% in March and their annual occupancy growth was slightly negative. We expect Class A assets to continue to underperform for rent growth relative to the other classes for two income-related reasons. First, Class A residents with the highest income levels will be prime targets for developers seeking to fill new units, and second, those with lower income levels will increasingly face affordability issues and may seek to move down in class or push for lower rents at lease renewal."

Effective Rent Growth and Occupancy
One year ago in March 2012, the annual effective rent growth rate was 4.05%. It has now slowed in ten of the last 11 months, and the March 2013 growth rate of 3.22% was the lowest it has been since measuring 2.88% in August 2010. Class B properties grew effective rents at a rate of 3.3%, while Class C grew at 4.0%. 

Occupancy numbers continued to strengthen during March, especially as conditions tightened for Class C properties. While occupancy at Class A properties actually declined slightly from a year ago (from 95.2% in March 2012 to 95.0% this March), Class C properties posted robust occupancy growth, increasing from 92.2% in March 2012 to 93.0% in March 2013. Class B properties increased occupancy modestly over the past year, growing from 94.6% in March 2012 to 94.8% this March.

Sixteen of the top 88 MSAs had annual effective rent growth greater than 5.0% in March, including Oakland (7.6%), San Francisco (6.2%), Houston (6.2%), Denver (6.1%), San Jose (5.5%), and Seattle (5.2%). MSAs underperforming the national average include Las Vegas (0.9%), Washington, DC (1.0%), Boston (2.4%), Los Angeles (2.9%), Orlando (2.9%), Raleigh (3.1%), and Atlanta (3.1%). The following table lists some of the top and bottom performing MSAs across the country:

 
Top and Bottom  Performing MSAs
Rank* MSA Annual Effective Rent Growth Occupancy Rate Revenue Growth
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-13
1 Boulder, CO 3.8% 11.2% 95.9% 96.0% 2.8% 11.3%
2 Palm Bay, FL 2.0% 6.0% 92.0% 95.0% 4.6% 9.5%
3 Corpus Christi, TX 7.6% 7.0% 94.7% 95.9% 10.2% 8.4%
4 Lake County, IL 2.7% 5.6% 94.1% 96.3% 3.7% 8.0%
5 Oakland, CA 7.2% 7.6% 95.9% 96.2% 7.6% 7.9%
6 Cape Coral, FL 2.8% 6.9% 94.3% 95.1% 4.0% 7.8%
7 Houston, TX 5.5% 6.2% 92.5% 93.8% 7.5% 7.6%
8 Jacksonville, FL 0.7% 5.2% 91.4% 93.4% 0.8% 7.5%
9 Denver, CO 7.0% 6.1% 94.8% 95.2% 7.1% 6.6%
10 Louisville, KY 3.5% 6.5% 95.7% 95.3% 4.2% 6.0%
13 Seattle, WA 5.6% 5.2% 95.6% 95.9% 5.8% 5.6%
18 Nashville, TN 4.7% 4.7% 95.1% 95.4% 5.6% 5.1%
19 Austin, TX 6.7% 4.6% 94.7% 95.0% 7.1% 5.0%
  National 4.1% 3.2% 94.1% 94.4% 4.5% 3.5%
55 Boston, MA 7.3% 2.4% 95.7% 95.7% 6.9% 2.4%
71 Washington, DC 3.4% 1.0% 94.9% 94.8% 2.8% 0.9%
77 Las Vegas, NV -1.0% 0.9% 92.2% 91.8% -0.3% 0.5%
79 Lexington, KY 4.9% 1.1% 93.4% 92.4% 6.1% 0.1%
80 Albuquerque, NM 0.8% -1.2% 91.9% 92.9% -2.0% -0.2%
81 Chattanooga, TN 2.1% 2.5% 96.1% 93.5% 4.1% -0.3%
82 Sacramento, CA 2.4% -0.4% 95.1% 94.6% 1.9% -0.9%
83 Greensboro, NC 0.4% -0.9% 92.4% 92.4% -0.2% -0.9%
84 Detroit, MI 7.3% 1.6% 94.3% 91.9% 9.7% -1.0%
85 Little Rock, AR -0.3% -0.2% 92.0% 91.2% -1.1% -1.0%
86 Tucson, AZ 2.1% -1.7% 92.1% 92.2% 2.5% -1.5%
87 Winston-Salem, NC 2.6% -0.9% 92.6% 91.7% 4.4% -1.8%
88 Mobile, AL 2.0% -1.4% 91.4% 90.6% -0.5% -2.3%
 
*Rank is based on annual revenue growth in March 2013. Only the top 88 MSAs were used for the ranking. Axio tracks properties in more than 400 MSAs around the country.
 
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
 

Apartment Pipeline

At the end of March, Axiometrics was tracking nearly 360,000 apartment units under construction and close to 1.1 million units in the planning stage across 349 MSAs. Of the units under construction, approximately 180,000 are scheduled for delivery in 2013. The following table displays the top 10 MSAs for total apartment units under construction:

 
MSAs With The Most Units Under Construction
MSA Total UC 2012 2013 2014* Total Planned**
Washington, DC 28,333 6,290 11,042 13,446 107,267
New York, NY 26,126 4,322 7,985 7,458 32,438
Dallas, TX 18,192 5,830 10,223 5,136 26,328
Houston, TX 15,291 4,350 7,628 4,686 33,517
Seattle, WA 12,365 2,768 7,646 4,464 42,661
Austin, TX 12,207 2,408 7,144 4,476 33,967
Los Angeles, CA 11,903 721 5,000 5,827 53,970
Denver, CO 10,720 2,192 5,225 4,738 24,168
Atlanta, GA 10,248 1,597 5,147 3,259 30,576
Chicago, IL 9,784 1,373 3,848 3,396 24,168
National 359,765 87,139 179,999 118,054 1,098,641
 
*Delivery schedule is only based on properties that have started construction. The 2014 total will be higher as planned properties begin construction.
 
**Not all planned properties will convert to actual construction.
 
Note: The delivery schedule is dynamic and changes as construction timelines change on individual properties. The chart is based on data as of March 2013.
 
Source: Axiometrics Inc.

About Axiometrics
Axiometrics is the only multifamily research provider to survey every property in its database at the floor plan level every month. Every property. Every month. Only Axiometrics. Learn more at www.axiometrics.com or by calling 214-953-2242. 

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