Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 09, 2005 06:00 ET

BENCHMARKING FALLOUT OF GOMERY COMMISSION ON FED POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 9, 2005) - A new survey of the Federal political landscape conducted by Ipsos-Reid for CTV/Globe and Mail during the two days prior to and the night of the partial-lifting of the publication ban by Mr. Justice Gomery on what has been described as "explosive revelations" concerning the sponsorship scandal and the Federal Liberal Party in the province of Quebec indicates that Paul Martin's Federal Liberals have fallen to their lowest level of support since the last weeks of the 2004 Federal election.

Clearly, as the fall-out from the testimony continues and the political dynamics heat-up, this poll may simply be a benchmark of things to come.

The survey results show that if a Federal election were held tomorrow, 34% of decided voters in Canada would vote for the Liberals (-3 points since February 2005), 30% would vote for The Conservative Party (+4 points) and 15% would vote for the New Democratic Party (-2 points).

Nationally, the Bloc Quebecois garners 10% of the decided vote (unchanged), and within Quebec attracts 41% of the decided vote (+2 points) - they also hold an impressive 12-point lead over the Liberals (29%, -5 points) in this province.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 5th to April 7th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Conservatives Gain (30%, +4 Points) While Liberals Dip (34%, -3 Points)…

According to the survey, if a Federal election were held tomorrow, 34% of decided voters in Canada would vote for the Liberals (-3 points), 30% would vote for The Conservative Party (+4 points) and 15% would vote for the New Democratic Party (-2 points).

Nationally, the Bloc Quebecois garners 10% of the decided vote (unchanged), and within Quebec attracts 41% of the decided vote (+2 points) - they also hold an impressive 12-point a lead over the Liberals (29%, -5 points) in this province.

Of remaining decided voters, 7% would cast their ballot for the Green Party (unchanged) and 4% would vote for some "other" party.

Among all Canadians, 11% "don't know" or are unsure of whom they would vote for if a Federal Election were held tomorrow.

The National Vote…

Parties Election Results Jun 28 04 Oct 5-7 04 Oct 26-28 04 Feb 15-17 05 Apr 5-7 05 Change
The Conservative Party 30% 25% 26% 26% 30% +4
The Liberals 37% 40% 39% 37% 34% -3
The New Democratic Party 16% 17% 16% 17% 15% -2
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 9% 9% 10% 10% 0
The Green Party 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 0

·In the province of Ontario, the Conservative Party has gained 6 points and has climbed to 34% of the decided vote, while the Liberal Party has dropped 5 points and now sits at 38%.
·In Quebec, the Liberal party has fallen 5 points to 29% of the decided vote as the Bloc Quebecois continues to gain steadily - rising 2 points to 41%.
·In British Columbia, both the Liberals (40%, +6 points) and the Conservatives (31%, +4 points) have gained, while the Green Party has dropped sharply by 7 points to 4% of the decided vote.
·In Alberta, there has been a sharp shift to the Conservative Party (57%, +14 points) and away from the Liberal Party (13%, -16 points).
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the NDP have dropped 14 points to 11%, as the Liberals have gained 12 points and sit at 36%.
·In Atlantic Canada there has been little movement.

Please refer to the tables to review each region for vote movement

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/

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