SOURCE: BIGresearch

August 14, 2008 10:30 ET

BIGresearch: McCain and Obama Running Neck and Neck

McCain Continues to Increase His Net Promoter Score* but Clinton Supporters May Hold Key

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - August 14, 2008) - In August, Barack Obama and John McCain remain just about even, according to BIGresearch's (http://www.bigresearch.com) monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) survey of over 8,500 people. Respondents were asked to cast a vote as if the election were held today and it couldn't be any closer with 38% voting for McCain and 37.4% for Obama.

Baby Boomers appear more inclined to vote for McCain (44.6%), while 43.6% of younger Americans, ages 18 to 44, tend to align with Obama. More importantly, however, are the undecided voters who are the tie-breakers for the election in November. 20.3% of all adults are undecided and this group of voters looks a lot like Hillary Clinton supporters. They tend to be Caucasian (86.5%), Women (58.8%), over 45 years old with slightly below average incomes.

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If the Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for?

                All       Registered   Voted in
               Adults       Voters       2004     Republicans   Democrats
John McCain     38.0%        39.0%       40.9%        75.3%       11.2%
Barack Obama    37.4%        36.6%       35.4%         9.1%       66.5%

Source: BIGresearch, Aug 08 CIA (N=8582)

By using the Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were asked to rate, on a scale from 0 (Not at all likely) to 10 (Extremely likely), the probability they would recommend a candidate to a friend or coworker. 10 and 9 responses indicate Promoters, 8 and 7 responses are Passives and 0 through 6 are Detractors. NPS is calculated by subtracting the percentage of Detractors from the percentage of Promoters.

Month-over-month, McCain saw an increase in promoters while Obama's score remained flat among all adults. McCain's score within his own party has increased almost two points to 13.1% (v. 11.4% in July); indicating Republicans are getting the word out about their candidate. Obama also saw an increase of almost one point to 3.9% (v. 3.0% in July). However, McCain has more promoters within the Republican Party than Obama does in the Democratic Party, which could signal that Clinton supporters are still not on board.

                    Obama                    McCain
                    -----                    ------
              July       August       July          August
All          -44.6%       -44.4%     -47.6%          -45.9%
Democrats     +3.0%        +3.9%     -82.7%          -83.3%
Republicans  -87.1%       -85.6%     +11.4%          +13.1%
Independents -53.4%       -53.1%     -58.9%          -56.4%

Source: BIGresearch, July 08 CIA (N=8361) & Aug 08 CIA (N=8582)

*Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld

About BIGresearch

BIGresearch is a consumer intelligence firm providing analysis of behavior in areas of products and services, retail, financial services, automotive, and media. BIGresearch conducts the Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) Survey which monitors more than 7,500 consumers each month. The CIA delivers fresh, demand-based information on where the retail consumer is shopping and their changing behavior. Unlike indicators based on past performance, this data brings intelligence on where the retail consumer is going, their intentions and actions. They also conduct the Simultaneous Media Survey (SIMM) of more than 15,000 consumers twice each year.

BIGresearch's methodology provides the most accurate consumer information in the industry with a margin of error of +/- 1 percent. http://www.bigresearch.com

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