OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Feb. 19, 2014) - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is anticipating a strong year for Canadian farmers in 2014. Three new reports released today, the Farm Income Forecast for 2013 and 2014, the Medium Term Outlook and the Farm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Assistance Data Book, 2013, suggest an overall positive situation for the agriculture sector in 2013 and 2014. These reports provide financial and market forecasts for the sector and offer benchmarks for producers, industry stakeholders and governments as they plan for the years ahead.
With farmers' net incomes remaining near historical peaks, robust crop prices, favourable livestock markets and an excellent Prairie harvest, indications suggest an overall positive situation for the agriculture sector in 2013 and 2014.
Farm Income Forecast for 2013 and 2014 Highlights
- Canadian farmers produced a record crop of 96.5 million tons of grain in 2013 due to historically high yields and ideal weather conditions.
- The average total income of farm families is expected to continue rising, reaching $132,579 in 2014.
- Aggregate net cash income for 2013 is projected to total $13.2 billion, a near-record, while farm-level average net operating income is forecasted to increase to $68,498.
- Program payments declined by 25% due to favourable production conditions in 2013 and generally healthy returns the last few years.
- Average net worth per farm is projected to hit an all-time high of $2 million in 2014.
Medium Term Outlook Highlights
- An increase is expected in prices for grains and oilseeds from the current lows as robust global growth and rising demand continues to support prices well above pre-2007 levels.
- Although feed prices have declined from drought induced highs, they will remain relatively strong and continue to be the most significant cost component for the livestock sector.
- Cattle and hog prices are expected to remain at higher levels over the medium term and livestock producers will find some relief from the high 2012 grain prices.
- The Outlook projects that Canadian exports of agriculture and agri-food products will continue to expand on trend supported by economic growth in large emerging markets. Exports will continue to be important for the red meat sector.
"These latest forecasts show how the agriculture sector continues to be a strong driver of the Canadian economy. Canada's agriculture and food industry has grown into a modern, technologically-advanced, export-oriented sector that is among the elite performers in todays' highly competitive global marketplace and the outlook is bright for our farmers".
- Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz
- Farm Income Forecast for 2013 and 2014
- Medium Term Outlook
- Farm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Assistance Data Book, 2013
- Economic Publications
The Farm Income Forecast (FIF) is prepared in consultation with the provincial governments and Statistics Canada. Reflecting information available up until mid-December 2013, it is Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) measure of the financial strength of the agriculture sector and its contribution to Canada's economy. This forecast represents a federal-provincial consensus on the outlook for farm receipts, expenses, and net incomes for the previous (2013) and current (2014) calendar years.
The Medium Term Outlook (MTO) is a set of projections based on current policies, recent market conditions, and longer-term macroeconomic assumptions. Consequently it presents a "plausible future" for the international and domestic agri-food sectors in the decade ahead. It draws on recent economic projections from a number of sources including the Conference Board of Canada, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the United States Department of Agriculture. Together with the FIF, the MTO gives governments and stakeholders a forward-looking benchmark against which alternative future scenarios can be compared.
Also released at the same time as the FIF and MTO is the report on Farm Income, Financial Conditions and Government Assistance (referred to as the Data Book), which does not provide forecasts. Rather, it provides a historical summary of economic and financial indicators from recent years, including government spending and assistance to the farm sector, all in an easily accessible format. The Data Book has been published by AAFC since 1988. The data are collected from different sources, including AAFC, Statistics Canada, Farm Credit Canada, the Bank of Canada, the Conference Board of Canada, the OECD, and provincial governments.