SOURCE: Scotiabank

Scotiabank

July 29, 2014 08:00 ET

Commodity Prices Edge Down in June: Scotiabank

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - July 29, 2014) - Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index inched down by 0.7% month-over-month (m/m) in June, but has climbed 8.9% from last December's low -- led by stronger oil and gas prices.

"The Metal and Mineral sub-Index retreated in June, but will rally sharply in July amid a spurt in base metal prices and steadier gold prices," said Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank's Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist. "Exuberance over a moderate pick-up in China's economy in the second quarter partly accounts for the recent surge in investor interest in base metals, as does a second year of record global auto production, with strength in China (+9.7% YTD), North America (+4.3%) as well as Germany and Spain (+7.9% -- the two biggest auto manufacturers in Western Europe)."

Other highlights in the report include:

  • Spot uranium prices have likely touched bottom at US$28, given the draft approval by Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority of restarts at two nuclear reactors; however, high inventories in Japan and elsewhere may slow the price recovery; 
  • Canada remains the top crude oil exporter to the U.S. -- with exports continuing to climb -- but a dwindling surplus on refined petroleum products and stepped-up imports of U.S. pentanes-plus to flow bitumen through pipelines have pared the net gains in Canada's merchandise trade since 2013; and
  • Aluminium prices -- important to the economies of northern B.C. and Quebec (Rio Tinto-Alcan) -- have recovered markedly from very depressed levels in early 2014.

Read the full Scotiabank Commodity Price Index online at: http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.

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