SOURCE: Scotiabank

Scotiabank

January 29, 2015 08:00 ET

Commodity Prices Tumble to Lowest Level Since Mid-2009, Says Scotiabank's Patricia Mohr

Oil Prices Should Recover Moderately by Mid-2015, Alongside an International Supply-Side Adjustment

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - January 29, 2015) - Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index plunged -10.3% month-over-month (m/m) and -15.4% year-over-year (yr/yr) in December to mid-2009 levels.

"A fight for market share in international oil and iron ore markets as well as general unease over lacklustre global economic conditions and an almost 'deflationary' environment -- particularly in the Eurozone and Japan -- contributed to widespread softness in commodity prices," said Patricia Mohr, Vice President of Economics and Commodity Market Specialist at Scotiabank. "However, in contrast to many commodities, gold prices have strengthened in recent months -- a welcome development for the Toronto Stock Exchange.

"Uncertainty over global growth and pressure on some oil-related currencies has given gold a renewed bid as a 'safe haven'. The outlook for the physical gold market also appears to be fairly strong, with record or near-record bullion imports into India in the second half of fiscal 2014.

"After retreating to low levels, silver prices have rallied to US$17-18 per ounce, a positive development for the world's major producers in Mexico and Peru. Mexico is the world's top silver producer, accounting for 20.7% of world production, and Peru the second largest, with a 14.4% share."

Another highlight from the report includes:

  • Spot potash prices for the standard grade (FOB Vancouver) were unchanged in December at US$320 per tonne -- up only modestly from a low of US$295 in January 2014. However, the operating performance of Canada's three major potash producers has improved over the past year, with record global potash demand in 2014 (estimated at 58-60 million tonnes).

Read the full Scotiabank Commodity Price Index online at: http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.

Scotiabank is a leading financial services provider in over 55 countries and Canada's most international bank. Through our team of more than 86,000 employees, Scotiabank and its affiliates offer a broad range of products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, corporate and investment banking to over 21 million customers. With assets of $806 billion (as at October 31, 2014), Scotiabank trades on the Toronto (TSX: BNS) and New York Exchanges (NYSE: BNS). Scotiabank distributes the Bank's media releases using Marketwired. For more information please visit www.scotiabank.com.

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