Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 30, 2005 06:00 ET

CONSERVATIVES (33%) CONTINUE TO LEAD LIBERALS (30%), BUT VOTE TIGHT

Liberals Assume Lead In Ontario (40%, +5 Points) Over Past Week As Conservatives Stumble (33%, -6 Points) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 30, 2005) - According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid national survey of 1000 Canadians conducted from April 26th to April 28th, 2005 and provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, volatile Ontario voters have rebounded in the wake of the deal this past week between Prime Minister Paul Martin and NDP Leader Jack Layton, returning the Liberals to front running status in the seat rich province (40% for the Liberals vs. 33% for the Conservatives). It will be remembered that this volatile group of voters decided the last Federal Election in a weekend conversion to the Liberals and delivered them a Minority government. It would appear what was dubbed last time as the "highway 401 election campaign" may be headed for a repeat in 2005.

But, despite a rebound in Ontario, the Conservatives still lead the country in a tight race for voter support. If a Federal election were held today, 33% of decided voters would support the Conservative Party (down 1 point), 30% would support the Liberals (down 1 point), 17% would support the NDP (down 1 point), and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 48% support (up 4 points) and holds a 27-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (21%, down 7 points).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from April 26th to April 28th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The National Vote…

According the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 33% of decided voters would support the Conservative Party (down 1 point), 30% would support the Liberals (down 1 point), 17% would support the NDP (down 1 point), and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 48% support (up 4 points) and holds a 27-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (21%, down 7 points). The Conservatives have 16% of the decided votes in Quebec.

Among all Canadians, 13% are undecided, refused to say who they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 12-14, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 36% 35% 34% 33% -1 +3
The Liberals 37% 27% 30% 31% 30% -1 -7
The New Democratic Party 16% 15% 18% 18% 17% -1 +1
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 10% 12% 11% 12% +1 0
The Green Party 4% 7% 5% 5% 5% 0 +1

Regional Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Conservatives (33%, down 6 points) have lost their lead to the Liberals (40%, up 5 points), while the NDP (19%, down 1 point) and the Green Party (unchanged) remain static.
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (48%, up 4 points) have expanded their lead to 27-points over the Liberals (21%, down 7 points). The Conservatives (16%, up 2 points) and the NDP (8%, unchanged) battle in the lower rungs in this province, while the Green Party (3%, unchanged) barely registers in this province.
·In British Columbia, the Conservative Party (34%, - 2 points) continues to lead. The Liberals (28%, up 5 points) have slid into second place in this province, as the NDP (23%, down 9 points) have slipped down in the polls - the Green Party attracts 10% of the decided vote (up 1 point).
·In Alberta, the Conservative Party (67%, up 7 points) dominates the Federal political landscape, as the Liberals (18%, down 2 points), the NDP (6%, down 3 points), and the Green Party (5%, down 3 points) are all down.
·In Atlantic Canada, there is a tight three-way race among the major political parties, with the Liberals (36%, down 8 points), the NDP (32%, up 9 points), and the Conservative Party (27%, down 1 point) contesting - the Green Party attracts 1% of the decided vote in this region (down 2 points).

Please Refer To The Table Below To Review Each Region:

Ontario
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 39% 33% -6
The Liberals 35% 40% +5
The NDP 20% 19% -1
The Green Party 5% 5% 0

Quebec
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 14% 16% +2
The Liberals 28% 21% -7
The NDP 8% 8% 0
The Bloc Quebecois 44% 48% +4
The Green Party 3% 3% 0

British Columbia
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 36% 34% -2
The Liberals 23% 28% +5
The NDP 32% 23% -9
The Green Party 9% 10% +1

Alberta
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 60% 67% +7
The Liberals 20% 18% -2
The NDP 9% 6% -3
The Green Party 8% 5% -3

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 44% 49% +5
The Liberals 30% 23% -7
The NDP 20% 20% 0
The Green Party 1% 3% +2

Atlantic Canada
April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 28% 27% -1
The Liberals 44% 36% -8
The NDP 23% 32% +9
The Green Party 3% 1% -2

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
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