Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 16, 2005 06:00 ET

CONSERVATIVES CONSOLIDATE LEAD OVER GRITS AS ONTARIO TURNS BLUE

Conservative Party (36%, +6 Points) Surges As Liberals Continue To Wallow (27%, Unchanged) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 16, 2005) - According to Ipsos-Reid's latest national survey of 1000 Canadians, that was conducted on behalf of CTV/Globe and Mail and released today, Canadian voters are continuing to punish the governing Liberal Party.

If a Federal election were held today, 36% of decided voters in Canada would cast their ballot in support of the Conservative Party (+6 points from the last survey conducted April 8-10th, 2005), 27% would vote for the Liberal Party (unchanged), 15% would vote for the NDP (-4 points), and 7% would vote for the Green Party (unchanged). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 41% (-7 points) of the decided vote.

And, it's the Conservative Party that is now on the march in seat rich Ontario (39%, +7 points) and making a respectable showing in Quebec (16%, +3 points).

The Bloc Quebecois (41%, - 7 points) has lost some ground to the Liberals (25%, +7 points) in Quebec, and now only holds a 16-point lead (down from a 30-point lead).

And, when should we have an election? Only 11% indicate a willingness to go to the polls "right now", with another 14% preferring to wait until "right after all the witnesses have finished testifying in early May". However, a majority (53%) think that if there is an election it should come "after Mr. Justice Gomery releases his final report in October" - a further 19% say "at no time in the near future".

When it comes to leadership attributes, Paul Martin beats out Stephen Harper in the following:
·The best Prime Minister of Canada (42% vs. 34%);
·Better on the economy (47% vs. 34%);
·Values similar to your own (38% vs. 34%),
·Better on foreign issues (53% vs. 27%); and
·Better on social programs (44% vs. 35%).

Stephen Harper beats out Paul Martin when it comes to whom Canadians trust more (40% vs. 35%), and whom they think will clean up corruption in Ottawa (41% vs. 26%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 10th to April 12th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Conservatives Surge As Liberals Wallow…

If an election were held today, 36% of the decided vote would be allocated to the Conservative Party (+6 points), 27% would go to the Liberals (27%, unchanged), 15% would go to the NDP (-4 points), and 7% would go to the Green Party (unchanged). Five percent would vote for some "other" party.

Nationally the Bloc Quebecois attracts 10% of the decided vote, and in the province of Quebec attracts 41% (-7 points) - the Bloc Quebecois now holds a 16-point lead over the Liberals (25%, +7 points) and a 25-point lead over the Conservatives (16%, +3 points) in this province.

Among all Canadians, 9% are undecided or refused to say whom they would vote for if an election were held today.

The National Vote…

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 February 15-17, 2005 April 5-72005 April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election
The Conservative Party 30% 26% 30% 30% 36% +6 +6
The Liberals 37% 37% 34% 27% 27% 0 -10
The New Democratic Party 16% 17% 15% 19% 15% -4 -1
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 10% 10% 12% 10% -2 -2
The Green Party 4% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0 +3


·In the province of Ontario, the Conservatives have made strong gains and now sit at 39% of the decided vote (+7 points) as the Liberals attract 33% of the decided vote (-1 point). The NDP (17%, -2 points) and the Green Party (6%, -4 points) have slipped slightly.
·In the province of Quebec, the Liberals (25%, +7 points) and the Conservatives (16%, +3 points) have swung up, while the Bloc Quebecois (41%, -7points) and the NDP (8%, -4 points) have slipped down. The Green Party holds steady at 6% of the decided vote (unchanged). Currently, the Bloc Quebecois holds a 16-point lead over the Liberals (down from the 30-point lead witnessed in the April 8-10th poll).
·In British Columbia, the Conservative Party is up 10 points to 42% of decided votes, while the Liberals (23%, - 1 point) and the NDP (23%, -11 points) are tied for second place. The Green Party is up 4 points to 11% of decided votes.
·In Alberta, the Conservative Party (65%, +11 points) dominates the Federal landscape and holds a 51-point lead over their next nearest challenger, the NDP (14%, +3 points). Meanwhile, the Green Party (9%, +3 points) and the Liberals (9%, -12 points) are tied for last in this province.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservative Party (44%, +13 points) is up, while the Liberals (25%, - 5 points), NDP (15%, - 8 points), and the Green Party (3%, -1 point) are all down.
·In Atlantic Canada, The Liberals (36%, +3 points) and the Conservative Party (35%, - 2 points) are essentially tied for top spot, followed by the NDP (15%, - 4 points), and the Green Party (6%, +4 points).

Please refer to the tables below to review each region for vote movement:

Ontario
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14,2005 Change
The Conservative Party 32% 39% +7
The Liberals 34% 33% -1
The NDP 19% 17% -2
The Green Party 10% 6% -4
Other 5% 5% 0

Quebec
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 13% 16% +3
The Liberals 18% 25% +7
The NDP 12% 8% -4
The Bloc Quebecois 48% 41% -7
The Green Party 6% 6% 0
Other 3% 4% +1

British Columbia
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Change
The Conservative Party 32% 42% +10
The Liberals 24% 23% -1
The NDP 34% 23% -11
The Green Party 7% 11% +4
Other 3% 1% -2

Alberta
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 54% 65% +11
The Liberals 21% 9% -12
The NDP 11% 14% +3
The Green Party 6% 9% +3
Other 8% 3% -5

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 31% 44% +13
The Liberals 30% 25% -5
The NDP 23% 15% -8
The Green Party 4% 3% -1
Other 12% 13% 1

Atlantic Canada
April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 37% 35% -2
The Liberals 33% 36% +3
The NDP 19% 15% -4
The Green Party 2% 6% +4
Other 9% 9% 0

If The Election Is To Come, When Do Canadians Want It? Only 11% Want It "Right Now" -- Majority (53%) Say After Mr. Justice Gomery Releases Report In October…

If there were to be an election, 53% of Canadians would most want it to come "after Mr. Justice Gomery releases his final report in October". However, 19% think the election should come "at no time in the near future", 14% would like to see it come "right after all the witnesses have finished testifying in early May", and only 11% say "right now".

·Support for having an election after Mr. Justice Gomery releases his final report in October is fairly consistent across all regions of Canada.
·Self-identified Liberal Party (58%) and NDP supporters (60%) are the most likely to want an election to come after the Gomery report release in October -- 52% of Conservative Party supporters feel this way, but only 42% of Bloc Quebecois supporters do.

How Do Harper And Martin Compare When It Comes To Specific Issues?

As part of the survey, Canadians were asked a series of comparative questions related to the qualities of Liberal Party Leader Paul Martin and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

When it comes to leadership attributes, Paul Martin beats out Stephen Harper in the following:

·The best Prime Minister of Canada (42% vs. 34% -- 18% say "neither");
·Better on the economy (47% vs. 34% -- 12% say "neither");
·Values similar to your own (38% vs. 34% -- 21% say "neither")
·Better on foreign issues (53% vs. 27% -- 10% say "neither"); and
·Better on social programs (44% vs. 35% -- 12% say "neither").

Stephen Harper beats out Paul Martin when it comes to whom Canadians trust more (40% vs. 35% -- 20% say "neither"); and whom they think will clean up corruption in Ottawa (41% vs. 26% -- 25% say "neither").

·Overall, voters in Ontario are the most likely to choose Paul Martin over Stephen Harper when it comes to these leadership attributes, while residents of Alberta are more likely to choose Stephen Harper over Paul Martin.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
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