Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

May 25, 2015 08:15 ET

Edmonton Housing Starts to Move Lower in 2015 and 2016

EDMONTON, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - May 25, 2015) - According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Spring 2015 Edmonton Housing Market Outlook released today, total housing starts in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are projected to moderate slightly to 13,800 units in 2015. In 2016, housing starts are forecast to decline further to 11,500 units.

"Lower employment growth, a higher vacancy rate, and more selection on the resale market will slow housing production in the latter part of 2015 and into 2016," Christina Butchart, CMHC's Principal, Market Analysis for Edmonton. "This will lead to a small decrease in housing starts in 2015, and a more substantial decline in 2016," added Butchart.

Single-detached housing starts are forecast at 6,400 for 2015 and 6,000 in 2016. "Demand for new single-detached homes will ease as employment growth slows, net migration dissipates, and the new home market competes with a better supplied resale home market," said Butchart. "As a result, inventory in the new home market is expected to increase and will lead to a further decline in single-detached housing starts in 2016," added Butchart.

Multi-family starts, which include semi-detached, row, and apartment units are expected to reach 7,400 units in 2015, as strength in the early months of 2015 leads the market to post an increase. However, the market will slow in the remaining months of 2015, and into 2016 as inventory for both ownership and rental tenure will face upward pressure. Multi-family housing starts are projected to decline to 5,500 units in 2016.

Demand for resale homes in Edmonton is on pace to moderate in 2015 but remain relatively strong by historical comparison. Slower employment growth and lower migration levels will put downward pressure on demand for resale homes. MLS® sales are expected to decline from 19,857 in 2014 to 17,500 in 2015, and then increase to 17,700 in 2016.

Easing demand and a higher number of active listings will put downward pressure on prices in 2015. Resale prices are expected to average $359,000 in 2015, a 1.0 per cent decline from 2014. In 2016, a slight pick-up in sales, combined with a small reduction in listings, will support price growth of about 0.8 per cent. This will lead to an average price of $362,000 for 2016.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642. CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

Additional data is available upon request

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Contact Information

  • Market Analysis Contact:
    Christina Butchart, Principal, Market Analysis, Edmonton
    (780) 423-8729
    cbutchar@cmhc.ca

    Media Contact:
    Dan Toth, Public Affairs Advisor
    (403) 515-2976
    dtoth@cmhc.ca