Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 12, 2005 06:00 ET

FALLOUT FROM GOMERY COMMISSION CONTINUES TO RAVAGE FEDERAL LIBERALS

Support For Liberals Has Dropped 10 Points Over Last Two Months To 27% -- Conservatives Enjoy 4 Point Bump To 30% Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 12, 2005) - In the wake of the lifting of a publication ban on Montreal advertising executive Jean Brault's testimony to the Gomery Commission, a new Ipsos-Reid survey conducted for CTV/The Globe and Mail shows the Liberal Party decided vote falling to its lowest level since March of 1989 when it was at 29%. According to the survey, conducted over April 8th to April 10th, 2005, among 1000 Canadians, if a Federal election were held tomorrow the Federal Liberals would garner 27% of the decided vote - representing a sharp drop of 10 points over the past two months from the 37% registered in a February 15th-17th survey. Meanwhile the Conservative Party has experienced a 4-point gain over this time frame, and now sits at 30% of the decided vote. The NDP attracts one in five (19%) decided votes.

In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds 48% of the decided vote, and has a 30-point lead over the Liberals (18%).

It would appear that the recent revelations of the Gomery Commission have strongly resonated with the Canadian public: Forty-five percent agree that because of the revelations of the Gomery Commission, the Martin Liberals have lost their moral right to govern and the opposition should force an immediate election - 26% agree strongly with this notion, compared with a slim majority (52%) who disagree. Furthermore, two-thirds (65%) believe that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to govern the country.

However, while one-quarter of Canadians (26%) feel that the revelations from the Gomery Commission will be the decisive factor in determining how they cast their ballot in the next Federal election, a full 71% feel they will consider this among many other factors when deciding who they will vote for. Overall, nine in ten (87%) agree that there should not be an election called until the Gomery Commission has been allowed to complete its investigation.

On that matter, a slim majority (52%) believe that the sponsorship scandal involves only a small rogue group of corrupt individuals, and not the Liberal Party in general - 25% strongly feel this way. A sizable proportion (44%), though, disagree with this notion (26% strongly). And most Canadians (55%) think Paul Martin's Liberal Party had something to do with the sponsorship scandal and they think they could be doing more to clean up corruption in the Federal government.

But while they may be upset about the scandal, they are split as to who they trust most to be Prime Minister: Forty-eight percent say that regardless of what's being revealed at the Gomery Commission, they are more likely to trust Paul Martin as Prime Minster than Stephen Harper" (46% disagree with this).

Fifty-five percent of Canadians agree they would never consider voting for the Liberal Party in the next election. In comparison, 50% say they would never consider voting for the Conservative Party.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 8th to April 10th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Liberals Plummet As Conservatives Rise…

According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, the Federal Liberal Party has dropped 10 points over the past two months - from 37% in a February 15th-17th poll to 27% today. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, now at 30% of the decided vote, has risen 4 points over this same period (this party garnered 26% of the decided vote in the February 15th-17th poll).

One in five Canadians (19%) would vote for the New Democratic Party (+2 points).

Nationally, the Bloc Quebecois garners 12% of the decided vote (+2 points), and within Quebec attracts 48% of the decided vote - giving them a staggering 30-point lead over their next closest competitor, the Liberal Party (18%), in this province.

Of remaining decided voters, 7% would cast their ballot for the Green Party (unchanged) and 5% would vote for some "other" party.

Among all Canadians, 10% "don't know" or are unsure of whom they would vote for if a Federal Election were held tomorrow.

The National Vote…

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 October 5-7,2004 October 26-28, 2004 February 15-17, 2005 April 5-72005 April 8-10, 2005 Latest Movement Movement since Feb 15-17
The Conservative Party 30% 25% 26% 26% 30% 30% 0 +4
The Liberals 37% 40% 39% 37% 34% 27% -7 -10
The New Democratic Party 16% 17% 16% 17% 15% 19% +4 +2
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 9% 9% 10% 10% 12% +2 +2
The Green Party 4% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0 0

·In the province of Ontario, the Liberals (34%, - 4 points) are virtually tied with the Conservative Party (32%, -2 points), while the NDP (19%, +2 points) and the Green Party (10%, +3 points) trails distantly.
·In Quebec, the Liberal Party (18%, - 11 points) has lost substantially while the Bloc Quebecois (48%, +7 points) has made strong gains - as the Bloc Quebecois now holds a staggering 30-point lead over the Liberals. The Conservative Party (13%, +5 points) has gained somewhat in this province, while the NDP (12%, +1 point) and the Green Party (6%, -1 point) have remained stable.
·In British Columbia, the Liberals (24%, - 16 points) have fallen sharply, as the NDP gained (34%, +13 points) - the Green Party (7%, +3 points) and The Conservative Party (32%, +1 point) have moved up slightly.
·In Alberta, the Liberals (21%, + 8 points) continue to trail The Conservative Party (54%, - 3 points) by a large margin - the NDP (11% , -6 points), and the Green Party (6%, - 6 points) are down somewhat.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the NDP (23%, +12 points) have gained while the other major parties have fallen somewhat: The Conservatives (31%, -8 points), the Liberals (30%, - 6 points), and the Green Party (4%, -6 points).
·In Atlantic Canada the Conservatives (37%, +4 points) lead the Liberals (33%, - 14 points), while the NDP (19%, +9 points) trails. The Green Party (2%, -2 points) barely registers in this region.

Please refer to the tables below to review each region for vote movement:

Ontario…
Ontario
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10th, 2005 Movement

The Conservative Party 34% 32% -2
The Liberals 38% 34% -4
The NDP 17% 19% +2
The Green Party 7% 10% +3
Other 5% 5% 0

Quebec…
Quebec
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10, 2005 Movement
The Conservative Party 8% 13% +5
The Liberals 29% 18% -11
The NDP 11% 12% +1
The Bloc Quebecois 41% 48% +7
The Green Party 7% 6% -1
Other 3% 3% 0

British Columbia….
British Columbia
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10, 2005 Movement
The Conservative Party 31% 32% +1
The Liberals 40% 24% -16
The NDP 21% 34% +13
The Green Party 4% 7% +3
Other 4% 3% -1

Alberta…
Alberta
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10, 2005 Movement
The Conservative Party 57% 54% -3
The Liberals 13% 21% +8
The NDP 15% 11% -4
The Green Party 12% 6% -6
Other 3% 8% 5

Saskatchewan/Manitoba…
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10, 2005 Movement
The Conservative Party 39% 31% -8
The Liberals 36% 30% -6
The NDP 11% 23% +12
The Green Party 10% 4% -6
Other 4% 12% +8

Atlantic Canada…
Atlantic Canada
April 5-7, 2005 April 8-10, 2005 Movement
The Conservative Party 33% 37% +4
The Liberals 47% 33% -14
The NDP 10% 19% +9
The Green Party 4% 2% -2
Other 6% 9% +3

Forty-five Percent Agree That The Liberals Have Lost The Moral Right To Govern As A Result Of Scandal - Slim Majority (52%) Disagree…

Forty-five percent of Canadians agree with the statement that "Because of what's being revealed at the Gomery Commission, the Martin Liberals have lost their moral right to govern and the opposition parties should force an immediate election" (26% strongly/19% somewhat), while 52% disagree (26% strongly/25% somewhat). The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know".

·Agreement is highest among residents of Quebec (61%), followed by Alberta (54%), Ontario (39%), British Columbia (38%), Atlantic Canada (37%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%).
·Disagreement is highest among residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (64%), followed by residents of Atlantic Canada (62%), Ontario (57%), British Columbia (56%), Alberta (41%), and Quebec (39%).

Two-Thirds (65%) Feel It Is Time For A Change In Federal Government…

Two-thirds of Canadians (65%) feel that the "Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country". Thirty-percent feel differently and think "the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin". The remaining 5% "don't know".

·Feelings that it's time for a change run highest in Alberta (74%), followed by Quebec (71%), British Columbia (69%), Atlantic Canada (61%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%), and Ontario (58%).

Only 26% Of Canadians Feel The Sponsorship Scandal Will Be Decisive Issue For Them When They Cast A Ballot -- Seven In Ten (71%) Say Other Issues Will Determine How They Vote…

Only one-quarter of Canadians (26%) feel that "their vote in the next Federal election will be based almost entirely on what they learn about the Federal sponsorship scandal, that is, it will be the deciding fact for them", as a majority of 71% feel that "while the Federal sponsorship scandal revelations is something that they will consider with their vote in the next Federal election, there are really a lot of other issues they feel strongly about and these other issues will ultimately determine how they cast their ballot". The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know".

·Feelings that the sponsorship scandal will not be the decisive factor in determining how they vote is highest in British Columbia (83%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (79%), Ontario (76%), Atlantic Canada (73%), Alberta (67%), and Quebec (54%).
·Residents of Quebec (41%) and Alberta (30%) are the most likely to feel that the revelations of the sponsorship scandal will be the decisive issue in determining how they vote.

But Nine In Ten (87%) Agree: No Election Before Completion Of Gomery Commission…

Nine in ten agree with that statement that "The Gomery Commission must be allowed to complete its investigation over the next few months before we have a Federal election" (67% strongly/20% somewhat), while 11% disagree. The remaining 2% "don't know".

·Levels of agreement are consistent across all regions of the country.

While Slim Majority (52%) Agree Sponsorship Scandal Involves Only A Small Rogue Band Of Corrupt Individuals, Not The Liberal Party In General - A Sizable Number (44%) Disagree…

Fifty-two percent of Canadians agree with the statement that "The sponsorship scandal involves only a small rogue band of corrupt individuals, not the Liberal Party in general" (25% strongly/27% somewhat). But 44% of Canadians disagree with this statement (26% strongly/18% somewhat). The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know".

·Agreement is highest among residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (63%), followed by residents of Quebec (53%), Atlantic Canada and British Columbia (both at 52%), Ontario (50%) and Alberta (48%).
·Disagreement is highest among residents of Quebec and Alberta (both at 46%), followed by Ontario (45%), British Columbia and Atlantic Canada (both at 43%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%).

Most Canadians (55%) Think Paul Martin's Liberal Party Had Something To Do With Sponsorship Scandal And They Could Be Doing More To Clean Up Corruption In Federal Government…

Most Canadians (55%) disagree with the statement that "Paul Martin's Liberals are not Jean Chrétien's Liberals, they had nothing to do with the sponsorship scandal and are doing their very best to clean up corruption in the Federal Government" (30% strongly/26% somewhat). Four in ten agree with this statement (15% strongly/26% somewhat). The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know".

·Disagreement is highest among residents of Quebec (64%), followed by residents of British Columbia (58%), Atlantic Canada (54%), Alberta (51%), Ontario (51%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (50%).
·Agreement is highest among residents of Ontario, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada (all at 44%), followed by residents of Alberta (43%), British Columbia (38%), and Quebec (34%).

Despite Scandal Revelations, Canadians Split On Who They Trust…

When it comes to the statement that "Regardless of what's being revealed at the Gomery Commission, I'm more likely to trust Paul Martin as Prime Minister than Stephen Harper" - Canadians are split: Forty-eight percent agree with this statement (28% strongly/20% somewhat) and 46% disagree (27% strongly/19% somewhat). The remaining 6% of Canadians "don't know".

·Agreement is highest among residents of Atlantic Canada (55%), followed by residents of Ontario (52%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47%), British Columbia (46%), Quebec (44%), and Alberta (35%).
·Disagreement is highest among residents of Alberta (58%), followed by Quebec (49%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47%), British Columbia (46%), and Ontario and Atlantic Canada (both at 41%).
·Those aged 18-34 are more likely than those aged 35 and over to agree with this statement (54% vs. 46%).

Six In Ten Canadians (58%) Are Following Gomery Commission Closely (Down 7 Points From February) -- 21% Are Following Very Closely…

Today, 58% of Canadians say that they are following the news coming out of the Gomery Commission closely - with 21% saying they are following it "very closely". This is down from 65% who said they were following the Commission hearings closely in a February 15th-17th survey (15% said they were following "very closely").

Four in ten Canadians (42%) are not following the Gomery Commission closely (22% not very closely/20% not at all).

·The Commission has attracted by far the most attention in the province of Quebec, where 70% say they are following it closely (40% "very closely").
·Men (64% vs. 53% among women) and those aged 35 and over (67% vs. 36% among those aged 18-34) are the most likely demographic groups to be following the Commission closely.

More Than Half (55%) Agree They Would Never Consider Voting For The Liberal Party In Next Election - 50% Say They Would Never Consider Voting For The Conservative Party…

More than half of Canadians (55%) agree with the statement that "I would never consider voting for the Federal Liberal Party in the next election" - with 41% saying they "strongly agree" (14% somewhat), while 42% disagree (21% strongly/21% somewhat). The remaining 3% "don't know".

·Agreement is highest in Quebec (68%, 54% strongly), followed by Alberta (65%, 49% strongly), British Columbia (56%, 42% strongly), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%, 46% strongly), Ontario (47%, 33% strongly), and Atlantic Canada (39%, 25% strongly).
·Disagreement is highest in Atlantic Canada (60%), followed by Ontario (50%), British Columbia (41%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (38%), Alberta (33%), and Quebec (30%).

Half (50%) agree with the statement that "I would never consider voting for the Federal Conservative Party in the next election" - with 36% saying they "strongly agree" (14% somewhat). Just under half disagree with this statement (25% strongly/21% somewhat).

·Agreement is highest in Quebec (60%, 42% strongly), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (56%, 40% strongly), Ontario (49%, 35% strongly) and British Columbia (49%, 35% strongly), Atlantic Canada (46%, 33% strongly), and Alberta (29%, 23% strongly).
·Disagreement is highest in Alberta (69%), followed by Atlantic Canada and British Columbia (both at 49%), Ontario (46%), Quebec (37%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%).

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
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