February 2015 Housing Starts in Guelph

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - March 9, 2015) - Housing starts in the Guelph Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending down at 403 units in February compared to 1,026 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) ¹ of housing starts.

"The decline in the starts trend in February mainly reflected the fact that builders had not started any apartments in the past six months. Several months without apartment starts are not unusual, particularly since the projects started in early 2014 were quite large. However, starts in February were trending at a level below long-term demand for new housing based on employment and population growth and an increase is likely," said Erica McLerie, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Guelph.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.

The SAAR of total housing starts was 361 units in February, down from 403 units in January. An increase in single-detached starts was not sufficient to offset the decline in starts of rows and semis. The cold weather in February also restrained the number of starts.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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^[1] All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

Additional data is available upon request.

(Ce document existe également en français)

Tables and a graph are available at the following address:

http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/Guelph_ENG.pdf