SOURCE: Kalorama Information

Kalorama Information

January 25, 2011 13:36 ET

February "Tell-Tale Month" for Flu Season: Kalorama

NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire - January 25, 2011) - There's been a slight decrease in flu activity this season, but according to Kalorama Information, the next month will determine how the 2010-11 flu season is judged. In addition to governments and healthcare professionals, the healthcare market research publisher says that makers of influenza vaccine products will be closely following next month's stats. The vaccine market totaled $22.1 billion in 2009, according to Kalorama's report, "Vaccines 2010: World Market Analysis, Key Players, and Critical Trends in a Fast-Changing Industry," and it's expected to grow further when numbers come out later this year. One of the key adult vaccine markets contributing to that market growth is the influenza vaccine.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) collects flu case data throughout the winter, and its data shows that while flu outbreaks can occur as early as October, the two months of highest flu activity are January and February, with the latter seeing nearly half of cases. Compiling data from the 1976-77 flu season to the present, the CDC has found that 47% of flu cases occur in February. January sees 20% and December 15% of cases. The agency reported a slight decrease in flu activity in January, but said it is too early to tell if there is a pattern yet. 

"February is the tell-tale month," said Bruce Carlson, Publisher of Kalorama Information. "You can be sure that vaccine manufacturers will be watching, as the strength of the flu season is determinative of demand."

While doses of this year's vaccine have already shipped, Kalorama says the strength of the flu season is historically an indicator of demand for next year's vaccine. The drug makers that produce flu vaccines include GlaxoSmithKline, France's Sanofi-Aventis and the Swiss firm Novartis. Kalorama suggests that the case data will help with business planning and strategy.

"This is an important area of their business, and they'll need to know if they can service it or if they have to be more aggressive about other product lines," Carlson said.

More information on vaccine products, companies and market projections is available from Kalorama Information's report, "Vaccines 2010: World Market Analysis, Key Players, and Critical Trends in a Fast-Changing Industry." The report can be found at:

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