Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

October 03, 2005 06:21 ET

FEDERAL POLL: GRITS (37%) HOLD 10-POINT LEAD OVER TORIES (27%)

Bloc Quebecois (58%, +11 Points) Has Gained Substantial Ground In Quebec - Now Hold A 32-Point Lead Over Liberals (26%, Unchanged) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ON--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 3, 2005) - With talk of a very possible late-fall federal election swirling around the nation's capital a new Ipsos Reid survey conducted for CanWest/Global reveals a substantial 10-point gap in decided voter support between Paul Martin and the Liberals (37%, +1 point from an August 16-18th survey) and Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (27%, -1 point). The NDP (17%, -1 point) and the Green Party (4%, -2 points) trail the two leading parties distantly.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (58%, +11 points) has gained substantial ground since the last survey and now hold a 32-point lead over the Liberals (26%, unchanged).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest/Global and fielded from September 27th to September 29th 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The National Vote--

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow Paul Martin and the Liberals, who now sit at 37% of the decided vote (+ 1 point from an August 16-18th survey), would hold a 10-point lead in the polls over Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (27%, -1 point), while Jack Layton and the NDP would garner 17% of the decided votes (-1 point) and Jim Harris and the Green Party 4% (-2 points).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois now attracts the support of 58% of decided federal voters (+11 points), and now hold a 32-point lead over the Liberals (26%, unchanged).

A relatively high percentage of Canadians (15%, - 4 points) are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a federal election were held tomorrow.

Regional Vote Highlights--

* In Ontario, the Liberals (46%, +1 point), Conservatives (31%, +2 points), NDP (16%, -3 points), and the Green Party (5%, -1 point) have fluctuated slightly in the polls.
* In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (58%, +11 points) has gained substantial ground since the last survey and now hold a 32-point lead over the Liberals (26%, unchanged). Meanwhile, the NDP (9%, unchanged), the Conservatives (6%, -6 points), and the Green Party (2%, -3 points) register low on the federal radar screen.
* In British Columbia, the Liberals (36%, - 2 points) now have a very slight lead over the NDP (34%, +9 points), while the Conservatives (23%, -2 points) trail - the Green Party sits at 6% (-4 points).
* In Alberta, the Conservative party (55%, -2 points) more than doubles the Liberals (25%, +1 point) in decided vote support, as the NDP (13%, unchanged) and the Green Party (5%, -2 points) battle for the lower rungs.
* In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Liberals (36%, +7 points) are now essentially tied with the Conservatives (34%, unchanged), while the NDP (22%, -10 points) trails behind - the Green Party attracts 2% support (unchanged).
* In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%, +5 points) continue to gain support as the Conservatives (32%, +1 point)

-30-
For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
IN: POLITICS

Contact Information