Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

May 14, 2005 06:00 ET

FOLLOWING LOSS OF CONFIDENCE VOTE, TORIES 31% GRITS 27%

Half Of Canadians (50%) Believe That The Vote On Tuesday Night Was Indeed A Loss Of Confidence, But Most (62%) Willing To Wait Until Budget Vote On May 19th Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - May 14, 2005) - A new Ipsos-Reid national survey reveals that the Conservatives (31% and unchanged since last weeks poll) now appear to hold the lead in national decided voter support as the Liberals (27%, down 5 points) have fallen back in the polls.

Regionally, the Liberals have tumbled in two areas of the country. In volatile seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives now attract 34% of the decided votes (up 1 point) as Liberal support has dropped dramatically to 32% (down 12 points). Liberal support has also fallen in Atlantic Canada (35%, down 10 points) into a virtual tie with the Conservatives at 34% (up 2 points). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 56% support (up 6 points) and hold a 41-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (15%, down 5 points).

As for the other political parties nationally, 19% of decided voters support the NDP (up 3 points), and 6% support the Green Party (up 1 point).

Provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, this opinion poll was launched on the evening of May 10th when a 153-150 vote in Parliament called on Paul Martin and the Liberal government to step down. The survey was completed over the following two nights and included two further questions in the wake of the post-confidence vote turmoil.

It would appear that the loss of confidence vote on Tuesday night might well have been a watershed for the Liberal minority government in that half of Canadians (50%) surveyed after that vote believe that it indeed signalled a loss of confidence in Parliament for Paul Martin's Liberals. However, a majority of Canadians (62%) surveyed after the vote also indicated that they are prepared to wait for another confidence vote on the Federal budget that has been scheduled for May 19th.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from May 10th to May 12th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. A total of 626 Canadians were polled on two questions over the final two nights of the survey following the confidence vote. The results are nationally representative and have a margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. These particular results are herein reported on a national basis without regional or other sub-groupings of the survey population.

The National Vote…

According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 31% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Conservatives (unchanged), 27% for the Liberals (down 5 points), 19% for the NDP (up 3 points), and 6% for the Green Party (up 1 point)

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 56% support (up 6 points) and holds a 41-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (15%, down 5 points) - who are followed very closely by the NDP (11%, down 1 point) and the Conservatives (10%, down 1 point).

Among all Canadians, 13% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 35% 34% 33% 31% 31% 0% 1%
The Liberals 37% 30% 31% 30% 32% 27% -5% -10%
The New Democratic Party 16% 18% 18% 17% 16% 19% +3% +3%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% +1% +1%
The Green Party 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% +1% +2%

Half Of Canadians (50%) Believe That The Defeat Of Tuesday Night's Vote Signals The Liberals Have Lost Confidence Of Parliament…

When asked to consider the Tuesday night vote that was held in the House of Commons in which the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois won over the Liberals and the NDP, half of Canadians (50%) indicate that this signals that the Liberals have lost the confidence of Parliament and must call an immediate election -- just under half of Canadians (46%), however, hold the opposite view, and a further 4% "don't know".

But, Most Canadians (62%) Agree With The Liberals And NDP That A Confidence Vote Can Be Held Off Until The Budget On May 19th…

A majority of Canadians (62%) agree with the Liberals and the NDP that a confidence vote can wait until the budget vote on May 19th. Only one-third of Canadians (35%) take the side of the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois and believe that a confidence vote must be held immediately. The remaining 3% say they "don't know".

Regional Vote Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Conservatives now attract 34% of the decided votes (up 1 point) as Liberal support has dropped dramatically to 32% (down 12 points). The NDP (22%, up 5 points) and the Green Party (8%, up 4 points) have made some gains.
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (56%, up 6 points) now holds a 41-point lead over the Liberals (15%, down 5 points) who are locked in a tight race for second place with the NDP (11%, down 1 point) and the Conservatives (10%, down 1 point) - the Green Party has 4% support (unchanged).
·In British Columbia, the Liberals (32%, up 2 points) and the Conservatives (31%, up 4 points) are essentially tied for top-spot, while the NDP (23%, down 2 points) and the Green Party (12%, down 3 points) battle for the lower rungs.
·In Alberta, the Conservatives (59%, down 4 points) continue to dominate the Federal landscape, as they hold more decided vote support than the Liberals (24%, up 4 points), the NDP (11%, up 6 points) and the Green Party (5%, down 1 point) combined.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservatives (36%, down 16 points) lead despite a substantial drop in support, while the Liberals (28%, up 7 points) and the NDP (28%, up 5 points) are locked in second place - the Green Party is up 4 points to 5 percent.
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (35%, down 10 points) and the Conservatives (34%, up 2 points) are now essentially tied, as the NDP (27%, up 10 points) trails. The Green Party (0%, down 3 points) has dropped off the Federal political radar screen in this region.

Please Refer To The Tables Below To Review Vote Support By Region:

Parties Ontario
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 33% 34% +1
The Liberals 44% 32% -12
The NDP 17% 22% +5
The Green Party 4% 8% +4

Parties Quebec
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 11% 10% -1
The Liberals 20% 15% -5
The NDP 12% 11% -1
The Bloc Quebecois 50% 56% +6
The Green Party 4% 4% 0

Parties British Columbia
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 27% 31% +4
The Liberals 30% 32% +2
The NDP 25% 23% -2
The Green Party 15% 12% -3

Parties Alberta
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 63% 59% -4
The Liberals 20% 24% +4
The NDP 5% 11% +6
The Green Party 6% 5% -1

Parties Saskatchewan/Manitoba
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 52% 36% -16
The Liberals 21% 28% +7
The NDP 23% 28% +5
The Green Party 1% 5% +4

Parties Atlantic Canada
May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 32% 34% +2
The Liberals 45% 35% -10
The NDP 17% 27% +10
The Green Party 3% 0% -3

-30-

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
IN: POLITICS

Contact Information