SOURCE: BIGresearch


February 24, 2009 12:37 ET

Forecast IQ, Not All Retailers Facing Tough Times

Same Store Sales Growth Almost Certain for Buckle and Hot Topic

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - February 24, 2009) - In today's tough economy, where all news seems to be bad news, who are the retailers that are growing? According to the latest ForecastIQ™ analysis (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC), Buckle and Hot Topic are retailers almost certain to see same store sales growth over the next two months. While both are expected to realize increases, Buckle is predicted double-digit growth.

"Both Buckle and Hot Topic target young, fashion forward shoppers," says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "The difference is that Buckle shoppers tend to be younger, more fashion conscious, and have greater confidence in the economy than Hot Topic customers. Buckle shoppers also tend to be living on their own and not with their families."

"These factors contribute to aggressive spending in the midst of general economic hardships," says Allenby -- "the perfect recession-proof customer."

For demographic information and a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ:

Aeropostale, Family Dollar and Walmart are also expected to see same store sales growth over the next 60 days. While specialty retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle and Gap are almost certain to see decline.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase
Family Dollar
Hot Topic

Likely to see increase
Sam's Club

Almost certain to see decline
Abercrombie & Fitch
American Eagle
Banana Republic
Pacific Sun
Neiman Marcus

Likely to see decline
Children's Place

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist