SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

September 24, 2009 10:21 ET

ForecastIQ™: Frugal Consumers Keep Most Retailers' Sales Bumping Along the Bottom

Worst Declines Appear Over but No Sight of Major Move Upward for Same Store Sales

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - September 24, 2009) - Frugal consumers who are choosing to put more of their money into their savings accounts rather than retailers' cash registers translates into a less than rosy 75-day forecast for most retailers in the September ForecastIQ™ (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Conditions improved as 17 of the 27 retailers tracked showed forecasts for same store sales growth. However, the increases are small and the overall forecasts for most are still negative. Exceptions to this appear to be Aeropostale, Buckle, Ross, TJX and Cato's who look to show an increase in same store sales.

"Retailers that offer value continue to do well in an unforgiving economy," says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "It appears that a new consumer mindset of thrift and practicality has emerged, changing the competitive landscape for retailers."

Retailers almost certain to see a decline in same store sales over the next 75 days include higher-priced retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle, Gap, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Saks. On the brighter side, it looks like the big declines have ended and small increases or no increases are the norm for most.

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A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale                         Abercrombie & Fitch   Gap
Buckle                              American Eagle        Hot Topic
Ross                                Banana Republic       Neiman Marcus
                                    BJ's                  Nordstrom
                                    Bonton                Saks
                                    Costco                Wet Seal

Likely to see increase:             Likely to see decline:
TJX                                 Children's Place


About ForecastIQ™: ForecastIQ™ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ™ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ™ is a forecast of same store sales for 27 retailers who currently provide monthly same store sales results. The forecasts are based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.

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