SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

June 19, 2009 10:04 ET

ForecastIQ™: Outlook for Retailers Grim; Consumer Spending Isn't Getting Better

Value-Oriented and Teen Retailers' Forecasts Brighter

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - June 19, 2009) - Consumer spending isn't getting any better and as a result, same store sales growth for many retailers doesn't appear likely. According to the latest ForecastIQ™ analysis (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC), forecasts for retailers across the board are down from last month.

However, retailers including youth-oriented specialty stores such as Buckle and Aeropostale are almost certain to see same store sales growth.

Hot Topic, on the other hand, has gone from almost certain to see an increase to almost certain to see a decrease in same store sales. Abercrombie and Old Navy are almost certain to see a decline as well.

For a complimentary 30 day trial of ForecastIQ™: www.forecastiq.com

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     Almost certain to see decline:
-------------------------------     ------------------------------
Aeropostale                         Abercrombie & Fitch     Gap
Buckle                              Banana Republic         Hot Topic
Ross                                BJ's                    Neiman Marcus
                                    Bonton                  Nordstrom
                                    Costco                  Saks
                                    Dillard's               Wet Seal

Likely to see increase:             Likely to see decline:
-----------------------             ----------------------
TJX                                 American Eagle
Cato's                              Children's Place
Fred's                              Stage

About ForecastIQ™: ForecastIQ™ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates. You can register for a complimentary ForecastIQ™ webinar by clicking here: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/817009459

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ™ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ™ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist
    614-846-0146