SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

December 18, 2008 11:02 ET

ForecastIQ: Warehouse Clubs & Walmart Winners for Same Store Sales Growth Over Next 60 Days

Outlook Bleak for Department and Specialty Stores

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - December 18, 2008) - Same store sales growth over the next two months favors retailers who offer value, according to the monthly service called ForecastIQ from Prosper Technologies, LLC. This month's forecast remains positive for retailers like Costco, BJ's and Walmart, among others.

"It's interesting to compare the January forecast in November to the January forecast in December. Back in November, the average forecast across all retailers in ForecastIQ showed a same-store sales decline of -3.51," said Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "Information from the December CIA survey further depressed this average to -4.34%, or a 23% reduction."

Children's Place, Ross and Fred's are likely to see same store sales increase, Aeropostale and Cato are flat, and Stage and Pacific Sun are likely to see a decline. Department and specialty stores continue to be the dominant store types on the almost certain to see a decline list with such well known brands as Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle and Gap.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ and expectations
for same store sales growth/decline for the next 75 days follows:

   Almost certain to see increase       Almost certain to see decline
   BJ's                                 Abercrombie & Fitch
   Buckle                               American Eagle
   Costco                               Banana Republic
   Family Dollar                        Bonton
   Hot Topic                            Chico's
   Sam's Club                           Dillard's
   Walmart                              Gap
                                        Neiman Marcus
                                        Nordstrom
                                        Saks

   Likely to see increase               Likely to see decline
   Children's Place                     Pacific Sun
   Fred's                               Stage
   Ross

   No change (flat)
   Aeropostale
   Cato

Actual forecasts for each retailer can be accessed through a 30 day free trial of ForecastIQ by visiting http://www.forecastiq.com/.

"As a whole, the performances of discounters and warehouse clubs are expected to be the same or slightly improved, while same-store sales at department and specialty stores show the largest decline," said Allenby. "One exception is Buckle, who is expected to continue to post a double-digit increase in same-store sales through February."

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys. Allenby analyzed same store sales of over 37 publicly held retailers and applied Bayesian quantile analysis to the data including whether or not consumers said they plan to spend more, same or less. The results are accurate and for the first time provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day period. Short term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies: Prosper Technologies develops consumer centric analytics such as ForecastIQ from consumer responses to help businesses forecast consumer demand and expenditures, budget marketing and merchandising allocations and provide retailer specific cross consumption behaviors.

ForecastIQ is a forecast of same store sales for 37 retailers based upon future spending plans of consumers derived from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Action survey (CIA). Forecasts are 45 and 75 days forward and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. For more information: http://www.goprosper.com/forecastiq-info.pdf

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist
    614-846-0146