SOURCE: BIGresearch


March 01, 2011 14:45 ET

ForecastIQ®: Consumer Spending Slump Continues; Outlook for Same-Store Sales Growth Down From January

Is It Deja Vu All Over Again for Spending?

WORTHINGTON, OH--(Marketwire - March 1, 2011) -  The outlook for same-store sales growth continues to decline from the holiday spending high in December, according to the February ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). However, the forecast appears slightly brighter than February 2010, with less retailers likely to see decline:

Total Number for Retailers Tracked        
  FEB-2011 JAN-2011 DEC-2010 FEB-2010
Almost certain/likely increase* 13 14 17 12
Flat 1 3 3 0
Almost certain/likely decline 13 10 7 15

*An "almost certain increase" indicator for February means that in March and April, retailers are almost certain to experience same-store sales growth from the same period a year ago. Forecasts can be viewed by each month.

Complimentary 30-day trial:

Specialty retailer Victoria's Secret is almost certain to see an increase in same-store sales, while high-end retailers Banana Republic, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are likely to experience growth.

Department stores Dillard's, Bon-Ton and JC Penney are likely to see decline along with Saks.

Teen retailers American Eagle and Hot Topic are almost certain to see decline, while Abercrombie & Fitch remains flat.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through April follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     Almost certain to see decline:
Buckle TJX   American Eagle
Costco Victoria's Secret   Hot Topic
Ross Wet Seal    
Likely to see increase:     Likely to see decline: 
Aeropostale Fred's   Bon-Ton JC Penney
Banana Republic Neiman Marcus   Cato's Old Navy
BJ's Nordstrom   Dillard's Saks
Children's Place     Gap Stage 
Abercrombie & Fitch

Complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial:

About ForecastIQ®
The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 27 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) Survey data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day periods. Short term forecasts are available by enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist