SOURCE: Prosper Technologies(TM)

Prosper Technologies(TM)

February 04, 2011 10:45 ET

ForecastIQ®: Consumers Pull Back After Holiday Season; Outlook for Same-Store Sales Growth Down From December

Outlook Improves Year Over Year

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - February 4, 2011) - The outlook for same-store sales growth declined month over month, ending the upward trend we've seen since September, according to the January ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). However, the forecast appears brighter than last January, and more of the retailers tracked will likely see growth rather than decline:

Total Number for Retailers Tracked

    JAN-2011   DEC-2010   JAN-2010
Almost certain/likely increase*   14   17   8
Flat   3   3   4
Almost certain/likely decline   10   7   15

*An "almost certain increase" indicator for January means that in February and March, retailers are almost certain to experience same-store sales growth from the same period a year ago. Forecasts can be viewed by each month.

Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

BJ's and Costco are almost certain to experience growth in same-store sales through March, as are discounters TJX and Ross.

Abercrombie & Fitch, Buckle and Wet Seal are almost certain to see an increase, keeping in line with December's forecast. American Eagle and Hot Topic are likely to experience decline.

Forecasts are flat for department stores JC Penney & Dillard's.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through March follows:

Almost certain to see increase:  
Abercrombie & Fitch   Ross
BJ's   TJX
Buckle   Victoria's Secret
Costco   Wet Seal
     
Likely to see increase:     Likely to see decline: 
Aeropostale   Neiman Marcus   American Eagle   Gap
Children's Place   Nordstrom   Banana Republic   Hot Topic
Fred's   Old Navy   Bon-Ton   Saks
        Cato's   Stage
             
Flat:
Dillard's
JC Penney

Complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA®) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of 27 publicly held retailers who disclose their monthly same store sales, then applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist
    614-846-0146