SOURCE: Prosper Technologies(TM)

Prosper Technologies(TM)

December 01, 2010 12:35 ET

ForecastIQ®: Don't Expect Big Bounce in Same Store Sales for Remainder of Holiday Season

Forecasts for Luxury Department Stores, Value Retailers & Warehouse Clubs Look Good

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - December 1, 2010) - You would expect the November outlook for retailer same store sales to improve over last month given that the holiday season is in full swing. But according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC), the November forecast only moved sideways from October. Thirteen of the 27 retailers tracked are forecasted to have likely or almost certain growth, 2 are predicted to remain flat and 12 are likely/almost certain to decline. That's a loss of 1 in the growth column and a net of 3 in the decline.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked   
  NOV-2010 OCT-2010 
Almost certain increase* 6 3
Likely increase 7 11
Flat 2 4
Likely decline 9 6
Almost certain decline 3 3

*An "almost certain increase" indicator for November means that in December and January, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago. Forecasts can be viewed by each month.

Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

Overall, the forecast tends to favor luxury or high-end department stores, value-driven retailers and warehouse clubs. The outlook for teen retailers is mixed and not so good for other department stores.

Neiman Marcus and Saks are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales; Nordstrom is likely. On the other end of the spectrum, Ross is almost certain to increase and Fred's is likely. BJ's and Costco are both almost certain to see an increase.

Among teen retailers, Aeropostale and Buckle stand out, both likely to see an increase. Abercrombie & Fitch is forecasted to remain flat and American Eagle and Wet Seal are likely to decline. Hot Topic's outlook remains bleak at almost certain to experience decline.

Department stores such as Bon-Ton, Dillard's and JC Penney are all likely to see decline.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through January follows:

Almost certain to see increase:       Almost certain to see decline:
BJ's Ross    Hot Topic
Costco Saks    Stage
Neiman Marcus Victoria's Secret     
       
Likely to see increase:     Likely to see decline:
Aeropostale  Fred's   American Eagle Dillard's
Buckle Nordstrom   Banana Republic Gap 
Children's Place TJX   Bon-Ton  JC Penney 
      Cato's Wet Seal 
         
Flat:
Abercrombie & Fitch
Old Navy

For a complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of 27 publicly held retailers who disclose their monthly same store sales, then applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist
    614-846-0146