SOURCE: BIGresearch


March 31, 2011 10:16 ET

ForecastIQ®: Easter Provides Lift, But Still No Strong Signal From Consumers

Consumers Cautious as Concerns Over Economy, Layoffs Remain

WORTHINGTON, OH--(Marketwire - March 31, 2011) - Consumer confidence in the economy is off and layoff expectations are up, factors that appear to be contributing to a less-than-stellar projection for same stores sales growth in April and May, according to the latest ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies™). There seems to be an Easter bounce, but no indication of substantial recovery. And with the soft market, higher grocery and gas prices could dampen any modest progress.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked                    
Projection for: JAN/FEB     FEB/MAR     MAR/APR     APR/MAY
Almost certain/likely increase* 15     12     12     13
Flat 3     3     0     1
Almost certain/likely decline 6     9     12     10

*An "almost certain increase" indicator means that retailers are almost certain to experience same-store sales growth from the same period a year ago. Forecasts can be viewed by each month.

Complimentary 30-day trial:

Wholesale giants BJ's and Costco are almost certain to see an increase in same-store sales, as are value-driven retailers such as Ross and TJX. Upscale Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are almost certain to grow as well (Saks is likely).

Gap, Banana Republic and Old Navy continue to struggle -- all are likely to decline.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through May follows:

Almost certain to see increase:     Almost certain to see decline:  
BJ's Ross   Stage  
Costco TJX      
Neiman Marcus Victoria's Secret      
Nordstrom Wet Seal      
Likely to see increase:     Likely to see decline:  
Buckle Saks   Banana Republic Gap
Children's Place     Bon-Ton Old Navy
Fred's     Cato's Hot Topic
JC Penney     Dillard's  

Complete list of retailers:

About ForecastIQ®
The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 24 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA®) Survey data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day periods. Short term forecasts are available by enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

  • Contact:
    Phil Rist