SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

December 21, 2009 09:52 ET

ForecastIQ®: No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Retailers in Early 2010

Same Store Sales Forecasts Don't Bode Well for Higher-Priced Department and Specialty Stores

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - December 21, 2009) - Coming out of a sluggish holiday season, the new year doesn't hold much promise for retailers when it comes to their same store sales, according to the December ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Same store sales growth will likely be off over the next 75 days, although a repeat of last January's plunge isn't expected. Higher-priced retailers such as Abercrombie, Banana Republic and Neiman Marcus are almost certain to experience a decline. The forecasts for Nordstrom and American Eagle aren't much better as both are likely to see a decline in same store sales.

The brightest prospects are still confined to discounters, off-price retailers and warehouse clubs as demand continues to be weak and consumers continue to pull back on spending. Retailers with a discount offering such as Ross, TJX and Aeropostale are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales through January, while warehouse clubs BJ's and Costco are likely to see an increase. Buckle remains an anomaly as the only retailer with a higher price point tracked by ForecastIQ® that is forecasted growth. However, its rate of predicted growth has leveled off considerably from its double digit forecast last year at this time.

"The retail landscape is stuck in the winter doldrums," says Prof. Greg Allenby of the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "The picture hasn't changed, and isn't expected to change in the near future."

For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ®:

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQT and expectations for same store sales growth/decline through February follows:

Almost certain to see increase:   Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale                       Abercrombie & Fitch         JC Penney
Buckle                            Banana Republic             Neiman Marcus
Ross                              Bonton                      Saks
TJX                               Children's Place            Stage
                                  Dillard's                   Steinmart
                                  Gap                         Wet Seal
                                  Hot Topic

Likely to see increase:           Likely to see decline:
BJ's                              Cato's
Costco                            Fred's
                                  Old Navy
                                  American Eagle

About ForecastIQ™

ForecastIQ™ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

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    Phil Rist