SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

August 31, 2010 12:42 ET

ForecastIQ®: Outlook Retreats for Consumer Spending; Better Than Last August, but Worse Than Last Month

Demand Appears to Weaken Going Into All-Important 4th Quarter

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - August 31, 2010) -  The retail same store sales outlook, although improved from this time last year, has retreated month-over-month, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). More retailers are almost certain to see a decline in same store sales in the next 75 days, compared to last month, and fewer are almost certain to experience an increase. Growth appears sideways, not up, as consumers realign their spending.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked
  AUG-2010   JULY-2010   AUG-2009
Almost certain increase* 4   6   3
Likely increase 8   5   2
Flat 3   1   0
Likely decline 4   12   3
Almost certain decline 8   3   19
*An "almost certain increase" indicator for August means that in September and October, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

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For some, this realignment seems to mean shopping more discounters; for luxury buyers, it may mean stepping back into high-end retailers.

Indicators for September and October forecast that value-focused retailers Ross and TJX are almost certain to see growth. Neiman Marcus is almost certain and Nordstrom is likely to see an increase, and although Saks is not up, this high-end retailer is not down either.

Specialty retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Victoria's Secret are likely to experience increases in same store sales over last year. Warehouse clubs will likely see growth as well through October.

However, indicators also show that many specialty retailers and department stores will see declines in same store sales in the next two months. Buckle, Gap, Hot Topic, JC Penney and Dillard's are almost certain to experience declines.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through October follows:

Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
Costco Buckle
Neiman Marcus Dillard's
Ross Gap
TJX Hot Topic
  JC Penney
Likely to see increase: Stage
Aeropostale Steinmart
Abercrombie & Fitch Wet Seal
Children's Place Likely to see decline:
Fred's American Eagle
Nordstrom Banana Republic
Old Navy Bonton
Victoria's Secret  

For a complete list including all retailers and to sign up for free trial:

About ForecastIQ®  
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

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