SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies

September 30, 2010 10:40 ET

ForecastIQ®: Outlook for Same Store Sales Less Bad Than August, but Is This as Good as It Gets?

Number of Retailers Forecasted Growth or Decline Practically Even

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - September 30, 2010) - Although consumer confidence is down, the approaching holiday season may bring a slight uptick in demand, improving the same store sales forecast for retailers who are delivering value to their customers, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Of the 27 retailers tracked, 13 are forecasted likely or almost certain increase while 12 are forecasted for likely or almost certain decline.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked

    SEP-2010   AUG-2010   SEP-2009
Almost certain increase*   4   4   3
Likely increase   9   8   2
Flat   2   3   1
Likely decline   9   4   3
Almost certain decline   3   8   18

*An "almost certain increase" indicator for September means that in October and November, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago. 

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Indicators for October and November forecast that value-focused retailers Ross and TJX are almost certain to see growth and Fred's is likely. Warehouse clubs Costco and BJ's are also poised to experience increases.

Victoria's Secret is the only specialty retailer tracked that is almost certain to see an increase. But Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, Banana Republic and Children's Place aren't far behind; all are likely to grow year-over-year. Same store sales for high-end retailers Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are likely to increase as well.

On the other hand, indicators for almost as many retailers (ranging from specialty to department to value) predict declines over the next two months in same store sales, indicating that the holiday season should be met with cautious optimism across all retailer types.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through November follows:

Almost certain to see increase:   Almost certain to see decline:
Costco   Gap
Ross   Hot Topic
TJX   Stage
Victoria's Secret    
Likely to see increase:   Likely to see decline:
Abercrombie & Fitch   American Eagle
Aeropostale   Buckle
Banana Republic   Cato's
BJ's   Dillard's
Children's Place   JC Penney
Fred's   Old Navy
Neiman Marcus   Bonton
Wet Seal    

For a complete list including all retailers and to sign up for free trial:

About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact Information

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