GTA House Prices Spillover to Surrounding Centres

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Jan. 24, 2017) - Increasing home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are having a spillover effect in surrounding centres, particularly those within commuting distance. This analysis is part of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) latest Housing Market Insight (HMI) report on the relationship between GTA home prices and those of neighbouring markets.

While most Ontario markets have seen substantial home price increases over the past 20 years due to favourable economic conditions, more recently, CMHC detected moderate or elevated evidence of overvaluation in Hamilton and the GTA, suggesting that price appreciation in those centers is partly driven by other factors.

Report Highlights

• GTA house prices have increased disproportionately compared to other Ontario CMAs.
• Single-family home prices in the GTA are motivating buyers to purchase more affordable homes in nearby CMAs, driving up prices in those centres.
• Historically, house price spillovers from the GTA were prevalent in Hamilton, Barrie, and Guelph.
• More recently, house price spillovers have been occurring a bit farther out, especially in St. Catharines-Niagara, driven by the price of low-rise homes in the GTA.

To further illustrate the spillover effect, the report also considers the potential impact that a positive and negative shock to GTA home prices may have on surrounding areas. While these scenarios are in no way predictions, they demonstrate that should GTA house prices rise unexpectedly by 10% in a given quarter, Hamilton house prices could rise by 14% within a year. Conversely, an unexpected 10% contraction in GTA prices could lead Hamilton prices to decline by 14% within a year. In both cases, the impact would moderate over time and be less pronounced in other nearby communities.

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As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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QUOTES

"Our evidence supports that increasing single-family home prices in the GTA are persuading buyers to make purchases in nearby communities like Hamilton, Barrie and Guelph where homes are more affordable than within the city. In turn, this is driving up house prices in these neighbouring markets."

Jean-Sébastien Michel

Principal, Market Analysis Centre, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation